New Dietary Guidelines affirm dairy’s role in healthy eating

January 9, 2026

WASHINGTON — U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins this week released the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-2030. The new guidelines mark the most significant reset of federal nutrition policy in decades, the officials say, delivering a clear, common-sense message to the American people: Eat real food.

Nearly 90% of health care spending in the United States today goes toward treating chronic disease, much of it linked to diet and lifestyle, officials note. More than 70% of American adults are overweight or obese, and nearly one in three adolescents has prediabetes. Diet-driven chronic disease now disqualifies many young Americans from military service, threatening national readiness and limiting opportunity, they add.

“These guidelines return us to the basics,” Kennedy says. “American households must prioritize whole, nutrient-dense foods — protein, dairy, vegetables, fruits, healthy fats and whole grains — and dramatically reduce highly processed foods. This is how we Make America Healthy Again.”

Rollins says this edition of the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) will reset federal nutrition policy, putting families and children first.

“At long last, we are realigning our food system to support American farmers, ranchers and companies that grow and produce real food. Farmers and ranchers are at the forefront of the solution, and that means more protein, dairy, vegetables, fruits, healthy fats and whole grains on American dinner tables,” she says.

The 2025-2030 Guidelines reestablish food — not pharmaceuticals — as the foundation of health and reclaim the food pyramid as a tool for nourishment and education.

The guidelines emphasize simple, flexible guidance rooted in modern nutrition science, including:

• Prioritize protein at every meal;

• Consume full-fat dairy with no added sugars;

• Eat vegetables and fruits throughout the day, focusing on whole forms;

• Incorporate healthy fats from whole foods such as meats, seafood, eggs, nuts, seeds, olives and avocados;

• Focus on whole grains, while sharply reducing refined carbohydrates;

• Limit highly processed foods, added sugars and artificial additives;

• Eat the right amount for you, based on age, sex, size and activity level;

• Choose water and unsweetened beverages to support hydration; and

• Limit alcohol consumption for better overall health.

The guidelines also provide tailored recommendations for infants and children, adolescents, pregnant and lactating women, older adults, individuals with chronic disease, and vegetarians and vegans, ensuring nutritional adequacy across every stage of life.

Dairy industry stakeholders lauded the release of the guidelines and the spotlight on dairy foods as part of a healthy diet.

“The new Dietary Guidelines send a clear and powerful message to Americans: Dairy foods belong at the center of a healthy diet,” says Michael Dykes, president and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA). “IDFA applauds HHS and USDA for grounding the 2025-2030 DGA in today’s nutrition science, including the evidence showing that dairy products at all fat levels support healthy eating patterns. Recommending the consumption of whole and full-fat dairy products such as whole milk, yogurt, cheese and other dairy products is an important victory for consumer choice and public health.

“Americans can now enjoy the wholesome dairy foods that work for their cultural, dietary and lifestyle preferences knowing that they are benefiting from dairy’s unique nutrient profile,” Dykes adds. “IDFA encourages the administration to update federal nutrition programs tied to the DGA to ensure Americans can access whole, full-fat and reduced-fat dairy products through these programs.”

Dairy foods including milk, cheese, yogurt and other products are a cornerstone of healthy dietary patterns, delivering 13 essential nutrients, with the DGA highlighting dairy’s high-quality protein, healthy fat, vitamins and minerals, IDFA says, noting that the organization for many years has highlighted that scientific evidence does not support previous DGA recommendations to limit dairy food consumption to lowfat or fat-free products. Nutrition science has evolved to show the benefits of whole and full-fat dairy foods, including less weight gain, neutral or lower risk of heart disease, and lower risk of childhood obesity. The new guidelines reflect this growing body of research, providing Americans greater flexibility to choose dairy foods that meet their needs.

Dykes notes the DGA also highlight dairy’s central role as a protein source alongside healthy meats, eggs, seafood and other protein foods.

“These DGAs encourage Americans to look no further than wholesome dairy products like milk, yogurt, dairy powders, cheese and other dairy foods when adding healthy protein that work best for themselves, their families and their unique situations,” he says.

However, Dykes also cautioned that the DGA’s reference to “highly processed foods” could create unnecessary confusion among consumers and policymakers because there is no official or scientific consensus on what that term means.

“Many nutritious, safe and essential foods — including milk, yogurt and cheese — undergo processing to ensure quality, safety and accessibility,” he says. “Establishing dietary guidance around an undefined or inconsistently applied term risks discouraging consumption of nutrient-rich foods that are vital to public health. As we noted in recent comments to federal agencies, any move toward defining or classifying foods by processing level is premature and should be informed by rigorous, consensus-based science.”

In a statement from National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) President and CEO Gregg Doud, NMPF thanked HHS and USDA for recognizing dairy’s critical role in a healthy diet in the new DGA, noting the guidelines continue to recommend three servings of dairy for Americans and acknowledge dairy’s benefits at all fat levels and its prominence in diverse diets.

“We are proud to benefit American health in fundamental ways, and we welcome the potential these guidelines hold for expanding upon dairy’s critical role in the diet,” Doud says. “As also shown in the scientific report that preceded (this week)’s guidelines, reducing or eliminating dairy from the diet leads to undernourishment in key nutrients for millions of Americans. These guidelines encourage consumption of dairy nutrients critical to human health. Meanwhile, not all fats are created equal, and because the guidelines acknowledge this, dairy’s benefits are better reflected in this iteration of the guidelines.

Doud notes that now that the guidelines are out, the federal government will begin applying them across federal programs.
“We look forward to working with the entire nutrition community to ensure that dairy is best used to generate positive health outcomes for families across America,” he says.

Meanwhile, the Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) says that while the guidelines maintain long-standing limits on saturated fat and sodium, and emphasize fruits, vegetables, whole foods and water consumption — elements that reflect important, evidence-based public health priorities — amid this positive advice is “harmful guidance to emphasize animal protein, butter and full-fat dairy — guidance that undermines both the saturated fat limit and the 2025 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee’s science-based advice to emphasize plant-based proteins to reduce cardiovascular disease risk.”

“While the meat and dairy industries may be excited about the new food pyramid, the American public should not be; the guidance on protein and fats in this DGA is, at best, confusing, and, at worst, harmful to the one in four Americans who are directly impacted by the DGA through federal nutrition programs,” says CSPI President Peter G. Lurie. “In addition to contradictory guidance, the document spreads blatant misinformation that ‘healthy fats’ include butter and beef tallow.”

In response, CSPI and the Center for Biological Diversity have created the Uncompromised DGA — a resource that illustrates “what the federal dietary guidance should have looked like if the agencies had adhered to their mandate to publish an evidence-based DGA reflecting the reviews of the 2025 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee,” Lurie says.

“Much like many states are continuing to follow CDC’s long-standing, science-based pediatric vaccination schedule, policymakers, advocates, health professionals, and consumers can use the Uncompromised DGA to guide public health policy and individual decisions,” he says.

In a fact sheet on the new DGA from HHS, the department notes that the Dietary Guidelines are the foundation to dozens of federal feeding programs, and the release of the guidelines marks the first step in making sure school meals, military and veteran meals, and other child and adult nutrition programs promote affordable, whole, healthy, nutrient-dense foods.
To view the guidelines, visit https://realfood.gov.

CMN

Companies innovate as milk alternative growth steadies

January 9, 2026

By Rena Archwamety

MADISON, Wis. — As sales of plant-based milk alternatives begin to level off and consumers eye new priorities, companies are looking toward innovation to position their products as sustainable, nutritious, delicious and convenient.

Sales of plant-based milk, which experienced steady growth through 2023, have declined slightly over the last couple years. According to market research firm Mintel, in 2019, the U.S. non-dairy milk market was valued at $2.6 million, rising as high as $3.8 billion in 2023. However, non-dairy milks experienced sales decline in 2024 and 2025, impacted by the slight trend back toward conventional dairy.

Mintel’s “Milk and Non-Dairy Milk US 2025” report notes that dairy milk is making a comeback because of its natural protein content, affordability and nutritional value.

“Overprocessing worries and a cultural desire for simplicity drive the dairy milk resurgence,” Mintel says.

“Non-dairy milks have responded to ingredient criticism by releasing simple formulations that emphasize naturality,” the report adds. “While simplicity is important to consumers, they more often switch to a different type of milk for better nutrients and flavors. Brands should balance simplicity with these other attributes to maintain relevance.”

Dairy milk has seen a boost in sales due to elevated prices as well as trends toward natural products, up 5.3% over 2024 to an estimated $19.7 billion in 2025, according to Mintel. Long-term growth is forecast to rise 4.9% to reach $20.7 billion in 2030.

However, Mintel also forecasts that non-dairy milk sales will stabilize, growing 1.9% to reach $3.7 billion in 2030.

• Power of protein

Consumers are most willing to pay for protein in both dairy and non-dairy milk, reflecting a desire to maximize the nutritional value of their milk choices, Mintel says. While overall nutrition is a key priority, plant-based brands face the ongoing challenge of convincing consumers that their products are nutrient dense and natural.

Ripple Foods, a leading milk alternative that uses protein from yellow peas, boasts that its products deliver up to 20 grams of plant-based protein — more than any other leading non-dairy milk — while containing 50% more calcium than dairy milk, with less sugar, fewer calories and no common allergens like nuts, soy or lactose.

Last month, the company announced $17 million in new funding that will fuel several strategic initiatives. Among these, Ripple says it will introduce a new line of organic plant-based milks in the first quarter of this year at a time when consumers are seeking nutrient-dense, plant-based protein options over ultra-processed alternatives. Additionally, it will accelerate growth on its high-protein kid and core milk offerings and expand into foodservice channels while continuing to build on its established retail partnerships.

This new funding comes as Ripple has named longtime board member and seasoned industry leader Becky O’Grady as its new CEO. O’Grady spent over two decades at General Mills, where she most recently served as president of Global Häagen-Dazs and chief marketing officer for international. She also previously served as president of Yoplait USA.

“This is a pivotal moment for Ripple,” O’Grady says. “Harnessing the power of our brand and the strength of our team, we are poised to unlock our full potential. We are launching innovative new products, driving consumer penetration and customer expansion, and opening new growth horizons through transformative partnerships and capabilities.”

• New varieties

In addition to protein and nutrition, Mintel notes that brands are introducing novel flavors and bases to give consumers more options. Plant-based milk has seen multiple new launches that highlight the unique benefits of different bases. Nearly half of all consumers, especially Gen Z and millennials, are open to trying emerging non-dairy milks, paving the way for brands to meet this demand for variety.

“Gen Z struggles to define a strong reason for switching to non-dairy milk. They are the least happy with current non-dairy options but are the most open to trial,” Mintel explains. “Gen Z cites that ND milks do not contain enough nutrients and purchase fortified products more often, revealing a white space for more nutrient-packed options.”

Maïzly, which touts itself as the world’s first corn milk brand, recently was named the winner of the 2025 GAMA Innovation Award for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), honoring groundbreaking new products from around the world. Selected from entries from more than 50 countries, Maïzly says this recognition highlights its role in redefining the plant-based milk category.

Founded in 2019 by Marcel van der Merwe and Tim Leclercq, Maïzly is dairy-free, gluten-free, nut-free, seed-oil-free and allergen-friendly. Its main ingredient, soluble non-GMO corn fiber, supports digestion and promotes beneficial gut bacteria, the company says. Since its U.S. debut last year, Maïzly has expanded rapidly and now can be found on ShopRite, Hannaford, Redner’s,
Albertsons, United Supermarkets and Market Street shelves, as well as growing placement in coffee shops across the United States and United Kingdom.

“This one means a lot,” Leclercq says of the GAMA award. “We’ve poured everything into Maïzly. It’s a 24/7 push — competing with brands backed by hundreds of millions in marketing while we run on a shoestring. This award is proof that creativity, passion and determination can truly change the game.”

• Innovative format

milkadamia, a pioneer and global leader in macadamia nut milk, recently introduced new Oat Milk Slices, which allow users to make fresh oat milk on demand using just water. Each pack includes 20 shelf-stable slices that can be blended or shaken with water to make creamy oat milk.

“Oat Milk Slices were designed with versatility in mind,” says Neil Cox, CEO, milkadamia. “They’re ideal for home use, travel and situations where refrigeration or bulky cartons aren’t practical. They also present an exciting opportunity for coffee shops, cafés, offices and foodservice operators looking to reduce storage space, packaging waste and product spoilage while still offering high-quality plant-based milk.”

Cox says the company recommends blending one slice with one cup of water for 60 seconds, though the ratio easily can be customized to achieve a consistency anywhere from skim milk to cream.

Oat Milk Slices are similar to milkadamia’s Oat Milk Sheets that were announced previously, and while they haven’t replaced the sheets, they reflect milkadamia’s continued refinement of this innovation as the company responds to consumer feedback, retail interest and real-world usage, Cox explains.

“The response so far has been overwhelmingly positive,” he says. “We’ve showcased the innovation at multiple trade shows over the past few years and have begun introducing it to retail partners. Across the board, retailers, industry professionals and consumers have responded with curiosity, excitement and enthusiasm for what feels like a truly new category within plant-based milk.”

Oat Milk Slices currently are available to purchase on milkadamia’s website and are launching at select Target locations later this month and Whole Foods Market by March.

CMN

November cheese production up 5.9% over one year earlier

January 9, 2026

WASHINGTON — November U.S. cheese production, excluding cottage cheese, totaled 1.218 billion pounds, up 5.9% from November 2024, according to data released this week by USDA’s Natural Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). November cheese production was down 3.4% from the 1.261 billion pounds produced in October, and down 0.2% on a daily average basis. (All figures are rounded. Please see CMN’s Dairy Production chart.)

Italian-type cheese production in November totaled 526.2 million pounds, up 6.8% from November 2024. Production of Mozzarella, the largest component of Italian-type cheese production, totaled 415.2 million pounds in November,
up 7.2% from a year earlier.

American-type cheese production in November totaled 474.0 million pounds, up 5.6% from November 2024. Production of Cheddar, the largest component of American-type cheese, totaled 322.7 million pounds, up 4.7% from November 2024.

Wisconsin was the leading cheese-producing state with 294.8 million pounds produced in November, down 0.2% from November 2024. California followed with 202.8 million pounds produced in November, up 2% from a year earlier.

U.S. production of butter totaled 179.8 million pounds in November, up 2.2% from November 2024. November butter production was down 3.4% from October’s 186.2 million pounds, and down 0.2% on a daily average basis. California was the leading butter-producing state with 49.3 million pounds produced in November, up 9.5% from November 2024.

CMN

Hindsight 2025: Year in Review
Panelists discuss demand for proteins, industry expansion

January 2, 2026

MADISON, Wis. — Cheese Market News is pleased to bring you our annual Year in Review, a written Q&A panel featuring insights from cheese and dairy executives on issues that impacted the dairy industry in 2025, as well as a look ahead to what’s coming in 2026.

In the following pages, panelists share their outlooks on trade and tariffs, consumers’ rising appetites for protein, labor challenges, and the booming growth and expansion across the U.S. dairy sector.

We would like to thank our panelists for taking the time during the busy holiday season to share their insights with our readers. This year’s panelists are:

• Gregg Doud, president and CEO, National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), Arlington, Virginia;

• Corey Geiger, lead economist-dairy, Knowledge Exchange Division, CoBank, Denver;

• Carmen C. Licon-Cano, director, Dairy Products Technology Center at Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo, California;

• Norm Monsen, vice president, agriculture division, Creative Business Services/CBS-Global, Green Bay,
Wisconsin;

• Shawna Nelson, CEO, Organic Valley, La Farge, Wisconsin; and

• Amy Winters, executive director, Wisconsin Dairy Products Association (WDPA), Madison, Wisconsin.

What trends do you anticipate so far for U.S. dairy prices in 2026? How could domestic and global trade policy and economic conditions impact their trajectory this coming year?

Doud: According to analysis from our economics team, we at NMPF are optimistic in 2026 that cheese prices will recover along with domestic consumption as consumers feel more confident in finances and thus enjoy more meals out of the home. But even as we look forward to a domestic rebound, the last few years have revealed how critical exports are to the cheese industry. Since 2019, U.S. cheese exports have grown by over 60% (a gain of more than 220,000 metric tons). With new trade agreements, processing investment and milk on the horizon, the U.S. is increasingly poised to become the world’s preeminent cheese seller.

Geiger: Milk markets have changed quickly. We went from supply-demand balance to a global oversupply in a short 90-day window. Driven by both milk margins and beef-on-dairy revenue, U.S. dairy cow numbers have climbed over 200,000 head in 12 months to reach the highest number in over 30 years. In October, European Union (EU) milk was up a whopping 5.5% year over year — the highest output for any month in 25 years. Due to strong milk output, New Zealand-based Fonterra revised 2025/2026 milk prices down twice from Nov. 25 to Dec. 18. As a result, U.S. milk prices will be soft in the first and second quarter of 2026, with Class III ranging from $15.50 to $17 per hundredweight and Class IV a much lower $13.75 to $15 per hundredweight.

Monsen: The first two quarters of 2026 will be challenging. Heavy milk supplies not just in the United States but around the world will pressure the entire industry— from farmers through processing and the markets. Softening of trade policy, lowering interest rates and continued shortage of beef supplies all are factors that will help with sector strengthening in the last two quarters of 2026.

Nelson: Organic dairy sales grew 7.7% last year to $8.5 billion, according to the Organic Trade Association, reflecting rising consumer demand. We expect similar growth this year and remain optimistic about 2026 and continued retail demand. At Organic Valley, several dairy products are experiencing double-digit growth, which is highly encouraging.

Licon-Cano: Dairy prices are expected to continue rising, particularly within the value-added and specialty segments. This growth is driven by several factors, including increasing consumer demand for premium, organic, A2 milk and niche dairy products. As consumers prioritize quality, health benefits and unique flavor profiles, producers in the specialty sector are likely to see sustained pricing and stronger market opportunities.

What is one key issue impacting the dairy industry that you feel is most important for the U.S. Congress and the president to tackle in 2026? What progress do you want to see on this issue in the year ahead?

Doud: Agricultural labor is issue No. 1, 1A and 1B for dairy farmers. Dairy farmers need certainty in their workforce, and the current policy climate hinders their ability to grow and thrive. We support the current administration’s efforts to see what administrative solutions may be available to help dairy meet its labor needs, but any lasting solution will need Congress to enact a law that directly addresses the current farm workforce crisis.

Geiger: Securing the nation’s southern border has been a top priority of this administration and they have been very successful at reaching that objective. Given that success, the next step would be a discussion on legal pathways for farm labor and/or reform for the H-2A visa program to ensure an adequate workforce for dairy, agriculture, foodservice and hospitality venues. Specific to dairy, the industry needs year-round worker visas as there aren’t viable options at the present time. This is a dire issue for dairy, and it has been unaddressed for many years. Overall, it’s been proven that few employee alternatives exist as native-born Americans are not lining up to perform these jobs.

Licon-Cano: This may not apply to everyone, but a key issue is the need to sustain support for the Dairy Business Innovation program. The program was originally funded in the 2019 Farm Bill, and without a new bill in place, its continued funding — and the assistance it has provided to numerous dairy businesses across several states — remains uncertain. I sincerely hope a resolution is reached soon so the program can rely on stable funding in the years ahead.

Monsen: Labor uncertainty. Who will work the farms and the plants? Developing a fair and efficient system to recruit and keep in place those who qualify and have a strong work ethic is essential.

Nelson: Inflation is the biggest challenge for the U.S. dairy industry — on the farm and at the processing plant. Input costs are up for things like machinery, packaging, labor, services and so on. On the consumer side, willingness to buy organic dairy is up, but if inflation increases, I’m concerned for consumers.

Winters: A reliable workforce across the entire dairy supply chain remains one of the most pressing challenges facing the industry — from farms and processing plants to transportation, retail and foodservice. Federal policy must evolve to support year-round labor needs, including meaningful expansion of the H-2A program beyond its current seasonal framework to reflect the realities of dairy operations.

Expansion in the U.S. dairy industry is booming, with an estimated $11 billion in investments underway or planned in the coming years. Do you think the industry is well positioned to adequately supply the milk needed to meet the increased output of products at these facilities? What other opportunities or challenges do you foresee in the face of this expansion?

Doud: Dairy farmers will rise to the occasion of nourishing the U.S. and the world via these new investments, which wouldn’t have been made had businesses not been confident in their success. These are investments in U.S. dairy farmers and the belief that they will be highly competitive in the global marketplace. These investments have no parallel among other farm commodities, and this new capacity will make it even more important that we have in place policies that encourage U.S. dairy exports and greater domestic consumption to maintain this competitive edge.

Geiger: Dairy farmers have routinely proven that they can produce milk when the market demands it. While butterfat is currently in an oversupply situation, dairy processors and customers are searching everywhere for protein, be it ultrafiltered milk or whey protein isolates. Near term, the availability of protein may be tight. Also, there could be some tightness of milk regionally. Specifically, with New York leading all states in dairy processing investment at $2.8 billion, the Northeast stands out as an area that could be exceptionally tight. Adding to that situation is the fact that the Pennsylvania milk shed, a top 10 dairy state, has not shown the ability to grow its milk production over the past two decades. In fact, milk output there is down 12% over that time.

Monsen: NO PROBLEM for U.S dairy farmers to respond to milk needs. They always have and always will. Give them 6-9 months and milk flow can jump dramatically — provided a break even or better price they can receive.
The challenge could be: Can U.S. dairy market the increased volume of products, both domestically and by export?

Nelson: We’re committed to growing organic milk and supporting more farmers because that’s central to our mission. Thriving organics require right-sized, well-placed processing to stay efficient and sustainable. The Domestic Organic Investment Act (DOIA), introduced in the U.S. House and Senate in mid-December, is focused on leveraging a U.S. organic infrastructure to solve those processing and production bottlenecks for the organic industry.

Our 2026 goal is clear: ensure stable and sustainable pay for our farmer members, bolster the dairy supply chain, grow U.S. organics and expand consumer choice. With DOIA support, we can boost processing capacity, widen market access and keep organic dairy affordable and accessible.

Winters: The U.S. dairy industry is well positioned to meet demand for conventional milk, but there are pressure points. Historically low milk prices continue to strain farm viability and investment capacity. Organic milk supply is constrained, with East and West Coast markets increasingly competing for Midwest production streams. Manufacturing capacity is challenged to keep pace with shifting demand, particularly in higher-value segments like cottage cheese and enhanced-nutrient products. Addressing these issues will be essential to capturing significant growth opportunities.

How have ongoing tariff issues this past year impacted the U.S. dairy industry? What do you think are some alternative strategies to keep global dairy trade on an even playing field?

Doud: Dairy has seen one of its strongest export years ever in 2025, with shipments running at a record or near-record pace all year. We are hoping that trade negotiations underway will give our industry an even firmer foundation for global growth, even as we continue our own relationship-building with both existing and promising new partners.

Geiger: For the most part, dairy has been fortunate this past year. Despite the tariff tribulations, cheese and butter exports have been very strong, with cheese up 17% through the first nine months and butter up 79% compared to all of last year. That largely was driven by the fact that the U.S. has the lowest product prices among the big three exporters, including the EU and New Zealand. As product and ingredient prices come into closer alignment, tariffs could play a larger role. More concerning near term, however, is the milk production growth in the EU and New Zealand. With more dairy product availability, the U.S. will need to further improve being export savvy — especially with the new cheese plant capacity coming fully online.

Monsen: The short-term impacts we are well aware of — it’s been hard to build U.S. dairy export opportunity and volumes. Maybe more worrisome is the long-term impact. Once a market is lost, it takes a long time to get it back.

Nelson: Tariffs have raised input and machinery costs, putting pressure on U.S. dairy farmers, including those in organic. While most organic sales remain domestic and demand is strong, these added costs limit returns. It is difficult to determine what is creating those inflationary pressures be it tariffs or other economic factors, but as an example, farm machinery costs rose as much as 14% this past year. (Source: www.agriculture.com/partners-machinery-cost-estimates-for-2025-11802367)

Winters: Ongoing tariff uncertainty has made it more difficult for U.S. dairy to maintain momentum in key export markets. The greatest risk is not short-term disruption but the potential for importing countries to permanently shift sourcing to competitors if U.S. supply becomes unreliable or less competitive. To level the playing field, trade agreements should prioritize reducing barriers, enforcing science-based standards and providing stability for long-term customer relationships. Maintaining a consistent presence in global markets is essential for U.S. dairy’s continued growth and market share.

What are the hottest areas of opportunity for dairy product development based on consumer demand? What are some examples of innovative products you have seen or would like to see?

Doud: Innovation has long characterized dairy, and the past few years have been nothing but encouraging, from how dairy has adapted to the cottage cheese craze to the increased consumption of whole milk, which should be spurred by the new Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act. As far as new products and innovations, such as extended-shelf-life products and milk protein concentrates, that’s up to the brightest minds in this industry to develop. We know that with the private sector and industry partners like the dairy checkoff, the future is bright — and we can’t wait to see what comes next!

Geiger: In the 52-week window from November 2024 to November 2025, four dairy products ranked among the top 10 for unit growth — think volume — among all food products in retail outlets. Yogurt, paced by the high-protein Greek yogurt category, is No. 2. Next in line was natural cheese at No. 3, according to Circana and Dairy Management Inc. sales data. Rounding out the dairy quartet were cottage cheese at No. 6 and dairy creamers at No. 10. These growth numbers are substantial, with yogurt up 8.7%, while cottage cheese climbed 14.3%. In addition, sales are booming in the ready-to-drink dairy protein shake market.

Licon-Cano: Protein and lactose-free products are still the cool kids in the dairy world — health-focused consumers can’t get enough of them. From high-protein frozen desserts to extra-creamy protein-packed creations, the demand keeps climbing. I’m also crossing my fingers for more lactose-free cheeses to hit the shelves. And let’s not forget probiotics and fermented foods; they jumped on the scene a few years ago and aren’t going anywhere except up.

Monsen: Two areas for dairy product development: 1) Continue to invest is packaging options and possibilities. Dairy products have to be grab and go and easy. 2) Build on consumers’ desires for dairy products that address certain health needs. (Example now is A2 milk and digestibility.) Animal type and even genetic lines within the breeds might offer distinctive health benefits.

Nelson: Consumers are looking for convenient options that fit their busy lives without compromising taste or values. Organic Valley Stringles String Cheese offers a simple, on-the-go snack made with organic milk. Demand for Stringles has grown rapidly, leading to wider availability at major retailers nationwide. This growth highlights strong market interest, and we expect it to continue in the coming year.

Winters: Dairy is experiencing a true renaissance driven by consumer demand for products that deliver convenience, great taste and tangible health benefits. Consumers increasingly look for foods that do a job — including higher protein, probiotics, functional nutrition and shelf stability — and dairy has responded with remarkable innovation in both flavor and format. Yet the biggest challenge isn’t just creating great products — it is capturing attention in a crowded retail environment where consumers make purchase decisions in seconds. Packaging and marketing now play an outsized role in product success: Research shows that most new consumer packaged goods fail within the first year not because the product isn’t great, but because they fail to break through the noise on shelves and online. Successful dairy innovation must not only meet nutritional and sensory expectations, it must tell its story instantly through compelling design, clear benefits and strategic digital engagement.

How have supply chain challenges and labor shortages shaped operational decisions in 2025, and where do you see the most realistic opportunities for automation or AI-driven improvements in the dairy sector?

Doud: When it comes to AI-driven automation, it is important that we consider not only back-office applications that facilitate business efficiencies but also on-farm innovations that increase productivity.

Geiger: When visiting with bank customers, one area that routinely tops the list is automation. What tasks can be automated such as placing product in boxes, on pallets and preparing it for transport. These are important jobs to be certain, but they also can be boring and mundane jobs. With the growing costs of labor, this is an opportunity. Like my father-in-law said 25 years ago when he became the first robot dairy in the U.S., “I’m going to prepay my labor.” When it comes to AI specifically, we are at the infancy stage for dairy as there are many detailed and sophisticated tasks that require human ingenuity.

Licon-Cano: The level of automation really depends on a company’s size and type of operation. Large manufacturers tend to be highly automated, while smaller producers still rely heavily on manual labor — often facing a trade-off between what they can afford and the volume they produce. In R&D, AI-driven formulation tools remain an underused opportunity. A few options are already on the market, and I expect this area to grow significantly by 2026.

Monsen: Need prompts innovation. Labor shortages have driven solutions at the processing sector, and the next big jump will happen on the farms — not just robotic milking systems but feeding and animal care. It is probably fair to say that the labor required to produce the milk and make a dairy product in 2030 will be 50% of that needed in 2020.

Winters: Labor shortages and supply chain disruptions continued to create significant operational challenges across the dairy sector. Many processing facilities are operating with aging infrastructure that was not designed to support advanced automation or modern data systems, creating a disconnect between today’s workforce expectations and the realities of older plants. New entrants to the workforce are increasingly trained for digital, automated environments, while many dairy facilities still rely heavily on physically demanding, labor-intensive work, contributing to retention challenges.

The opportunity lies in targeted modernization — upgrading equipment, improving data integration and investing in workforce training alongside technology — so plants can meet both operational needs and the expectations of a modern workforce. That opportunity will require strategic public-private investment to ensure existing plants can adapt and compete. Current state and federal grant programs do not go far enough to support this transition, and conventional financing is often constrained by bank requirements and elevated interest rates.

What sustainability expectations or regulatory pressures had the biggest impact on your organization this year, and how are you balancing environmental goals with economic realities?

Doud: Downstream dairy buyers are showing continued interest in understanding farm-level sustainability efforts. The National Dairy Farmers Assuring Responsible Management Environmental Stewardship (FARM ES) Program exists to support dairy farmers, cooperatives and processors in showcasing on-farm sustainability progress within a single, streamlined platform. Just in the last year, more than 1,000 farms of a wide range of sizes in 44 states have gone through a FARM ES assessment. The new model that powers the platform offers scenario analysis capabilities so farms can assess the whole-farm impact of adopting new practices or technologies. A platform expansion will enable economic analyses alongside this scenario planning to equip farmers with greater insights in their decision-making.

Geiger: This topic continues to evolve. From an overarching perspective, we need to continue to develop economically viable solutions in which everyone in the supply chain can win. This includes economic opportunities for dairy farmers as technologies get implemented on the farm. It’s also important to remember that our older processing plants provide an opportunity as there are some processors who are taking a serious look at heat pumps throughout the plant. Older equipment uses more energy, and that adds to the carbon footprint.

Monsen: PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) contamination is a lurking challenge that will continue to grow.

Nelson: This year, the biggest challenge for our organization was the uncertainty caused by mixed signals from the federal government on conservation and sustainability grants. Delays and unreliable funding impacted both our business and our farmer members. The lack of clarity made it difficult to plan, promote and implement sustainability initiatives because we couldn’t be sure if support and payments would continue. These shifts in government policy created significant uncertainty for farmers and the co-op.

At the end of the day, we believe doing right by the planet and doing right by farmer members go hand in hand, but it takes creativity and collaboration to make that balance work.

Winters: One of the most significant pressures has been meeting increasingly stringent wastewater and environmental compliance requirements while continuing to invest in growth and innovation. At the same time, the industry is actively pursuing technology-driven solutions that turn environmental challenges into opportunities, such as initiatives to convert dairy byproducts like permeate into sustainable aviation fuel and other renewable products. These efforts aim to create a circular system where waste streams are minimized or eliminated altogether, aligning environmental goals with long-term economic viability. The balance comes from pairing achievable, science-based regulation with innovation and investment, ensuring sustainability solutions strengthen — rather than restrict — the future of dairy processing.

In addition to the topics already addressed, what key issues will impact the dairy industry in 2026?

Doud: On the policy front, new Dietary Guidelines for Americans will shape federal food assistance programs for the next half-decade. We are optimistic that dairy will fare well under the guidelines and will be ready to ensure that positive recommendations are reflected in federal programs. 2026 will also be the year of implementing the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, a major victory for dairy’s producers and American schoolchildren. Ensuring they have access to the full range of what dairy has to offer will be important as the industry continues to grow.

Geiger: Two come to mind. Dairy processors may need to look at milk pricing formulas to further incentivize protein production. Not that long ago, American-style cheesemakers were putting all the butterfat from farmgate milk into Cheddar and other similar cheese. With the current butterfat levels, those processors need to standardize the milk and sell sweet cream. The alternative is adding protein to the batch to make cheese. That protein can be milk protein concentrate, ultrafiltered milk or other protein sources.

Second, the beef-on-dairy movement has rewritten market signals related to milk, butterfat and protein as some farms are gathering upward 20% to 25% of farm revenue from beef sales driven by calf prices pushing in the $1,200 to $1,500 range. That in turn has caused the dairy cow herd to grow to its highest level in 30 years, due to these new margins for beef. In some markets, particularly in the Midwest and West, that could lead to excess milk and butterfat production in the near term as the newborn calf has more net profit than milk sales.

Licon-Cano: As an educator, one ongoing challenge is training opportunities for dairy employees. The dairy industry depends on a skilled workforce, and ensuring employees have the right competencies remains essential. In 2026, providing effective education and upskilling opportunities will continue to play a critical role in supporting the industry’s growth and success.

Monsen: The continued risk of funding cuts to dairy product research and innovation. To note, 2025 started out with the news that the Dairy Business Innovation program would be reduced/cut from the federal budget. Without the intense and time-consuming efforts from farmers, processors and associations (like the Wisconsin Cheese Makers Association), the good developments of the past year that the program prompted would not have happened.

Nelson: One of the biggest issues for the dairy industry in 2026 will be the results of changes to the federal milk marketing orders (FMMO) and what those changes mean for producers. These pricing rules have a major impact on how milk is valued and sold. For organic dairy farmers, the current system often creates challenges and puts them at a disadvantage. In the coming year, the organic sector is expected to take action to push for reforms that make pricing fairer and better reflect the costs and realities of organic production.

Winters: As we begin 2026, there is strong optimism around dairy production and consumption. Cheese remains strong, fluid milk is rebounding and demand for products such as cottage cheese, kefir and ultrafiltered milk continues to grow through innovation that aligns with evolving nutritional and convenience needs. The challenge for the industry will be sustaining investment in infrastructure, regulatory flexibility and workforce solutions that allow processors to turn this demand into long-term growth.

CMN

ERS releases long-term outlook for ag commodity prices, output

January 2, 2026

WASHINGTON — USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) recently released long-term agricultural projections for the next decade. While a full analysis of the data will be released in February, the information recently released by ERS includes projections on milk production and cow numbers, exports and commodity prices through 2035.

USDA’s long-term agricultural projections, also referred to as “baseline” projections, provide a scenario for the U.S. farm sector and global trade for the next 10 years. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators of each sector. The projections identify major forces and uncertainties affecting future agricultural markets; prospects for global long-term economic growth, consumption and trade; and future price trends and trade flows of major farm commodities.

ERS economists participate in the long-term projections analysis and lead the preparation of the USDA long-term projections report, which will be released in February.

Other USDA offices and agencies involved in the process include the World Agricultural Outlook Board, the Farm Programs and Conservation Business Center, the Foreign Agricultural Service, the Office of the Chief Economist, the Office of Budget and Program Analysis, the Risk Management Agency, the Agricultural Marketing Service, the Natural Resources Conservation Service and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

The latest data from ERS projects that U.S. milk production will reach 234.3 billion pounds in 2026 and climb steadily throughout the projection period to reach 259.2 billion pounds by 2035. The number of milk cows is projected to rise to 9.57 million head in 2026, up from 9.50 million head in 2025, but drop a bit in 2027 to 9.55 million head, and decline each year through 2031, when cow numbers are projected at 9.52 million head. Cow numbers then will steadily increase to reach 9.59 million head by 2035.

ERS says dairy exports on a milk-fat basis are projected to decline from 16.0 billion pounds in 2025 to 14.7 billion pounds in 2026 and 14.5 billion pounds in 2027. Milk-fat basis exports are projected to increase to 15.2 billion pounds in 2028, but then decline through 2033, before rising again to reach 14.9 billion pounds in 2035.

Exports on a skim-solids basis are projected to increase from 48.2 billion pounds in 2025 to 48.9 billion pounds in 2026, ERS says. Skim-solids basis exports are then projected to increase throughout the forecast period to reach 65.2 billion pounds by 2035.

The data projects that the all milk price will decline from $21.05 per hundredweight in 2025 to $19.25 per hundredweight in 2026, but then will increase steadily to reach $25.82 per hundredweight by 2035.

Wholesale dairy product prices are mixed. Cheddar is projected to decline from $1.80 per pound in 2025 to $1.74 per pound in 2026, ERS says. From that year on, Cheddar is projected to steadily climb each year to reach $2.24 per pound by 2035.

Butter is projected to follow a similar pattern, declining from $2.22 per pound in 2025 to $1.70 per pound in 2026. Butter is projected to increase steadily from 2027-2034 before reaching $2.31 per pound in 2035, a decline from the 2034 projection of $2.32 per pound.

Nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are projected to decline from $1.23 per pound in 2025 to $1.17 per pound in 2026, before climbing throughout the rest of the projection period to $1.55 per pound by 2035, ERS says.

Dry whey prices are projected to increase from $0.59 per pound in 2025 to $0.62 per pound in 2026 and continue climbing through 2029, projected at $0.64 per pound. Dry whey then will decline over the remainder of the projection period, reaching $0.62 per pound by 2035.

To view the data, visit www.usda.gov/about-usda/general-information/staff-offices/office-chief-economist/world-agricultural-outlook-board/baseline-projections.

CMN

Compliance date extended for Food Traceability Rule from FDA

January 2, 2026

WASHINGTON — FDA has announced an extension of the compliance date for those subject to recordkeeping requirements of the Food Traceability Rule from Jan. 20, 2026, to July 20, 2028.

FDA’s final rule on Requirements for Additional Traceability Records for Certain Foods (Food Traceability Final Rule) establishes traceability recordkeeping requirements, beyond those in existing regulations, for companies that manufacture, process, pack or hold foods included on the Food Traceability List (FTL). The final rule is a key component of FDA’s New Era of Smarter Food Safety Blueprint and implements Section 204(d) of the FDA Food Safety Modernization Act (FSMA). FDA says the new requirements identified in the final rule will allow for faster identification and rapid removal of potentially contaminated food from the market, resulting in fewer foodborne illnesses and/or deaths.

At the core of this rule is a requirement that those subject to the rule who manufacture, process, pack or hold foods on the FTL maintain records containing Key Data Elements (KDEs) associated with specific Critical Tracking Events (CTEs) and provide information to FDA within 24 hours or within some reasonable time to which FDA has agreed.

The final rule aligns with current industry best practices and covers domestic as well as foreign firms producing food for U.S. consumption, along the entire food supply chain in the farm-to-table continuum.

FDA notes that, because the Food Traceability Final Rule requires entities to share information with other entities in their supply chain, the most effective and efficient way to implement the rule is to have all persons subject to the requirements come into compliance by the same date. FDA proposed to extend the compliance date for the rule by 30 months to July 20, 2028. Subsequently, the Continuing Appropriations, Agriculture, Legislative Branch, Military
Construction and Veterans Affairs, and Extensions Act of 2026 directed FDA not to enforce the Food Traceability Rule prior to that same date. FDA intends to comply with this congressional directive.

For more information, visit www.fda.gov/media/183514/download?attachment.

CMN

Milk production, cheese sales forecast up for top exporters

December 26, 2025

WASHINGTON — Milk production by major global dairy product exporters, along with cheese exports, are forecast to grow in 2026, according to the latest Dairy: World Markets and Trade report published this month by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

Milk production by major dairy product exporters is forecast to average 0.4% higher in 2026 over the previous year as growth in the United States, Australia and Argentina offsets slight reductions for the European Union (EU) and New Zealand. Accounting for most of the growth, U.S. milk production is forecast 1.2% higher in 2026 as dairy farmers continue to increase herds to supply growth in processing capacity. Growing cheese production is fueling demand for milk while strong exports also have boosted demand for dairy products. Argentina milk production is forecast 4.0% higher in 2026, amid good pasture conditions and low feed prices. Output is expected to rebound above previous highs reached before production was negatively impacted by drought and high input costs in 2024.

Australia milk production is forecast to rebound by 1.8% as steady farmgate milk prices and relatively low feed costs will support herd recovery.

Output in New Zealand is forecast to contract slightly as the cow herd continues to decline. EU milk production is expected to decline for the second year in a row due to continued contraction in the cow herd, despite small growth in milk per cow. Although EU dairy margins improved during much of 2025, environmental policies and disease continue to weigh on the sector. EU processors are expected to continue to focus on high margin products, like cheese, as total milk production declines.

Cheese exports are forecast to increase an average 1% among major exporters, with 3% increases in volume forecast for the United States, United Kingdom and Australia, and a 2% increase for New Zealand in 2026 over 2025. EU cheese exports are forecast to drop 1% in 2026.

Australian cheese exports are forecast to reach 175,000 metric tons in 2026, the highest volume since 2008. Australian cheese remained globally competitive throughout 2025 and made notable export gains to China. With ample supplies for export and expected strong demand from several key Asian markets, cheese exports are well positioned to expand in 2026.

EU cheese exports in 2026 are expected to decline 1% to 1.4 million metric tons. Robust domestic demand combined with relatively high EU cheese prices are expected to lead to a slightly higher share of production remaining in the domestic market.

New Zealand cheese exports are forecast to grow 2% to 425,000 metric tons in 2026, a record if realized, but well below growth of 11% forecast for 2025. Global demand for cheese remains robust though competition has increased amid expansion in U.S. cheese production. Shipments grew 13% through October 2025, buoyed by rising demand from China, Japan, Korea and Indonesia.

Exports of U.S. cheese are forecast to reach over 620,000 metric tons in 2026, bolstered by higher supplies and strong price competitiveness. Lower U.S. prices relative to competitors will boost demand for foodservice use, especially in Asian and Western Hemisphere markets. Higher supplies and competitive prices have boosted U.S. market share globally, with strong gains in Japan, South Korea and Australia.

Global butter exports (including butteroil and anhydrous milk fat) are forecast to decline an average 7% in 2026 among major exporters, down 15% and 21% for the EU and the United States, respectively, and flat for New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

Skim milk powder (SMP) exports are forecast to remain flat in 2026 among global export leaders, with EU exports down 1%, New Zealand SMP exports up 4% and Australia and U.S. exports both projected at 0%.

Whole milk powder (WMP) exports are projected to decline an average of 1% among major exporters as New Zealand, the largest WMP exporter, will remain flat, Argentina is projected to export 7% more WMP in 2026 over 2025, and Australia and the EU will drop 13% and 9%, respectively.

To view the full report, visit https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/dairy.pdf.

CMN

Construction begins on $34M expansion of Edelweiss Dairy

December 26, 2025

ALBANY, N.Y. — New York Gov. Kathy Hochul recently announced the commencement of construction on Edelweiss Dairy’s $34 million expansion in the Town of Freedom in Cattaraugus County. This development comes in response to increased demands from regional manufacturers, including fairlife and Wells Enterprises, officials say.

Empire State Development (ESD) has awarded a $450,000 Excelsior Jobs Tax Credit contingent upon Edelweiss’s commitments to job retention and creation. In collaboration with the Cattaraugus Industrial Development Agency, ESD also has approved a reduced rate loan allocation of $8,403,214 from the State Bond Reserve.

“New York’s dairy industry is vital to both our agricultural and economic landscape, supporting thousands of jobs throughout rural communities,” Hochul says. “I am pleased to recognize the funding directed towards this sector, ensuring continued supply of high-quality dairy products and maintaining robust operations and supply chains.”

Established in 1960, Edelweiss Dairy is a third-generation, family-owned dairy operated by John Gerard
Borer, his son John Michael Borer, and daughter-in-law Bethany Borer.

With two additional farms in Arcade and Portageville, Edelweiss constitutes a significant component of the local agricultural community, state officials say. (This is unrelated to Edelweiss Creamery in Wisconsin, which closed earlier this year.)

“Our family takes pride in our longstanding contribution to this farm. We appreciate the support from Empire State Development, which enables us to fulfill increasing demand for our premium product and prepare for ongoing success,” says Edelweiss Dairy General Manager John G. Borer.

To enhance capacity and operational efficiency, Edelweiss Dairy will replace its current Freedom Farm facility. The expansion marks a transition to a modernized operation emphasizing automation, sustainability and herd care, aligning growth initiatives with environmental stewardship and resilience. The multi-phase project reflects rising consumer demand with Phase 1 involving construction of one barn. Phase 2 represents further investment, establishing two new 1,500-cow barns, a state-of-the-art rotary milking parlor capable of processing up to 700 cows per hour, a 21-million-gallon lagoon with cover, electrical infrastructure upgrades, and an innovative manure and sand separation system enabling recovery of 90% of bedding sand and reducing annual diesel consumption by approximately 18,000 gallons. The project is expected to generate 25 new jobs with an average annual wage of $75,000.

Edelweiss Dairy currently milks its herd three times daily and produces over 150 million pounds of high-quality milk annually.

CMN

Milk production in November rises 4.7% in 24 major states

December 26, 2025

WASHINGTON — Milk production in the 24 major milk-producing states in November totaled 18.08 billion pounds, up 4.7% from November 2024’s 17.27 billion pounds, according to data released from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). October revised production for the 24 major states was 18.72 billion pounds, a decrease of 11 million pounds or 0.1% from the previous month’s preliminary production estimate. (All figures are rounded. Please see CMN’s Milk Production chart.)

For the entire United States, November milk production was estimated at 18.79 billion pounds, up 4.5% from last year’s 17.99 billion pounds.

November production per cow in the 24 major states averaged 1,979 pounds, up 43 pounds from a year earlier and down 70 pounds from October. For the entire United States, production per cow in November is estimated at 1,963 pounds, up 41 pounds from a year ago and down 70 pounds from the prior month.

NASS reports the number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major states was 9.13 million head in November, up 214,000 head from a year ago and up 1,000 head from the prior month. In the entire United States, there were an estimated 9.57 million head in November, up 211,000 head from a year ago and unchanged from October.

California led the nation’s milk production in November with 3.31 billion pounds of milk, up 10.4% from a year ago. Wisconsin followed with 2.64 billion pounds of milk produced in November, up 1.8%.  

CMN

Today's Cheese Spot Trading
January 14, 2026

Barrels: $1.3600 (NC)
Blocks: $1.2850 (NC)

Click here for more market activity

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