Butter prices hit record highs while cheese continues down

September 29, 2023

By Rena Archwamety

MADISON, Wis. — Spot butter prices at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange this week set new record highs, while cheese prices continued to fall as foreign competition has kept prices low, according to market analysts. Barrels settled at $1.48 and blocks at $1.72 today, down from their peaks in the high $1.80s and low $2.00s, respectively, last month.

“U.S. exports — or the lack thereof — is the driving factor in cheese prices tumbling,” says Erica Maedke, managing director, Ever.Ag. “It seems a simple equation: if the U.S. is exporting cheese, it’s not coming to Chicago. We’ve heard that export deals booked in early summer finished shipping, and now the volume is back looking for a home and ultimately going to the CME.”

USDA’s Dairy Market News on Wednesday noted that the recent bearishness on the CME daily cash call has some cheese customers stepping back, but cheesemakers in the Midwest are relaying mostly similar notes to previous weeks regarding demand and their respective inventories. Foodservice demand remains intact, while retail demand expectations are somewhat firm as well. Cheesemakers expect buyers to continue to hold off until prices settle, and then they expect some larger-scale orders to come.

Barrel processors, despite facing stronger bears than their block processing counterparts, say inventories are not a near-term concern, Dairy Market News adds. Milk availability has something to do with this, as a number of processors say they are not running at full capacity for the first time this year.

Analysts see cheese prices continuing to remain lower in order to compete abroad.

“Prices in Europe and New Zealand are around $1.80, so U.S. prices can’t exceed that to be competitive. However, seasonally stronger demand should support blocks, but barrels could struggle to get back to the $1.70s to $1.80s in Q4,” says Mike McCully, president of The McCully Group.

He adds that futures prices also will need to drop below European and New Zealand prices for U.S. cheese to be competitive over a longer period of time.

Maedke also anticipates that the U.S. cheese price needs to fall low enough to book export business again.

“With EU prices for Mozzarella within a nickel of $1.60 per pound, that likely implies that barrels need to be under $1.50 to drum up new business,” she says.

Spot butter, on the other hand, set a record-high of $3.30 on Wednesday, up 46 cents compared to the previous Wednesday. Thursday butter climbed again to another record at $3.335 before settling again at $3.30 today.

“Clearly, butter markets are in the midst of a notably bullish wave,” Dairy Market News said in Wednesday’s Central U.S. Butter report.

The report notes that butter producers in the region say day-to-day operations are somewhat in line with where they have been in previous weeks, but some are concerned that the $3+ per pound market prices are going to slow buyers into a necessity-purchasing mode.

“That said, inventories are not abundant regionally, as there are loads available here and there, if customers are willing to pay the increasing rates,” Dairy Market News adds.

Maedke says the record-high butter prices are driven by strong domestic demand and lower seasonal production.

“Despite high wholesale prices, feature activity is strong as grocers invest marketing dollars to drive store traffic. Overall, scanner data indicates year-to-date butter and butter blend sales up 2%,” she says. “Anecdotally, we’ve heard that retailers did stock up on print butter earlier this year when the futures curve provided incentive to carry. That may be contributing to a smaller volume of available bulk butter — exactly the product traded at the CME and currently in high demand. I suspect retailers would like to run holiday butter features, but wholesale prices over $3 per pound may cut that opportunity.”

CMN

Government shutdown could impact ag programs, funding

September 29, 2023

WASHINGTON — Federal agencies are preparing for a government shutdown starting Sunday, and as of press time this morning, Democrats and Republicans had not yet come to an agreement on a stopgap bill to extend funding past its expiration.

According to several news sources, Republican lawmakers are refusing to sign a Senate bill that would include raising the debt ceiling and instead are voting on their own version today in the House, which President Biden has threatened to veto.

A statement issued today by the Office of Management and Budget says the House bill endangers vital programs and funding, including those related to food safety, public health and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (SNAP). The White House also says the House bill includes “harmful, partisan border legislation.”

Both U.S. Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., and U.S. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., yesterday warned that a government shutdown would be harmful, though for different reasons and each blaming the other party if a shutdown were to occur.

“Shutting down the government is not like pressing pause. It’s not an interlude that lets us pick up where we left off. It’s an actively harmful proposition. And instead of producing any meaningful policy outcomes, it would actually take the important progress being made on a number of key issues and drag it backward,” McConnell says, pointing to a 2019 finding by the Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee that found government shutdowns over the previous five years had cost taxpayers nearly $4 billion.

“As our colleagues’ 2019 report found, past shutdowns have delayed important maintenance and repair work that quote, ‘endangered the lives of law enforcement officers and created significant border security vulnerabilities,’” he explains. “They’ve forced officials to cancel tens of thousands of immigration hearings. And they’ve taken the Department of Homeland Security’s employee E-Verify system completely offline.”

Meanwhile, Schumer outlined a number of populations and sectors, including agriculture, that would suffer during a government shutdown.
New loans for farmers and ranchers “will halt, marketing assistance loans will pause, and technical assistance will stop due to Farm Service Agency offices closures, all of which create hardship for farmers who are in the middle of their harvest season, as well as those planning for next year’s,” Schumer’s statement explains. “Critical payments that our farmers depend on, through initiatives like the Conservation Reserve Program, Dairy Margin Coverage and the Agriculture Risk and Price Loss Coverage (ARC/PLC) programs, will also not be made, nor will post-disaster payments.”

In a statement this week to USDA employees, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack noted a lapse would mean certain government activities would cease due to a lack of appropriated funding. To prepare for this possibility, the department is working to update its contingency plans for executing an orderly shutdown of activities that would be affected, and during a lapse, designated, pre-notified USDA employees would be temporarily furloughed.

In a press conference earlier this week, Vilsack addressed the impact of a shutdown.

“We have a presence in every county in the country. So it’s going to impact and affect, literally, every county in the country,” he says, including the Farm Service Agency, Rural Development, conservation and some forest programs, Agricultural Research Service and much of the administrative staff. “There will be people working on the job, but if you don’t have administrative people behind them, the job doesn’t get done. It’s incredibly disruptive.”

CMN

USDEC renews partnership to advance Latin American ties

September 29, 2023

SAN JOSE, Costa Rica — The U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) this week renewed a partnership to advance cooperation between the organizations in promoting and harmonizing science-based standards related to food and agriculture.

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) builds upon four years of collaboration between USDEC and IICA and organizes a set of objectives focused on jointly supporting the development and implementation of science-based regulations via national level capacity building and participation in international standard setting forums. The agreement also commits the organizations to working to enhance the collaboration between government and private sector stakeholders to support the critical role of livestock in the global food system and sharing sustainable productivity growth best practices.

“Working as a united front to advance regulations grounded in science is critical as we seek to limit barriers to global dairy and agriculture trade flows,” says Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC. “Latin America serves as an important trading partner and natural ally in advancing issues of common concern. Our trip to Mexico and Costa Rica over the past week has reinforced the need for closer collaboration — a move we are taking today through extending our partnership with IICA.”

“We are delighted to welcome the U.S. dairy delegation to our headquarters,” says Manuel Otero, director general of IICA. “U.S. dairy is one of IICA’s most valued partners representing the voice of hard-working farmers as well as manufacturers. The U.S. dairy industry is committed to not just providing food security for the United States, but for the world. We are grateful for the visionary leadership of USDEC and Dairy Management Inc. in areas of innovation for productivity, sustainability and technology.”

IICA has a membership of 34 countries in the Americas, including the United States.

The MOU between USDEC and IICA complements similar agreement signed last year with Sociedad Rural Argentina and the Chilean Federacion Nacional de Productores de Leche, which strengthened USDEC’s relationships in Latin America.

CMN

U.S. completes latest round of talks in Indo-Pacific pact

September 22, 2023

BANGKOK — The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) and the U.S. Department of Commerce last week participated in the fifth in-person negotiating round for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF).

This latest round of negotiations, held in Bangkok Sept. 10-16, built on discussions that took place during the fourth negotiating round that was held in Busan, South Korea, in July. The IPEF partners continued to make progress on negotiations toward high-standard outcomes under Pillars I (Trade), III (Clean Economy) and IV (Fair Economy).

Officials also continued discussions on the next steps for the proposed IPEF Supply Chain Agreement (Pillar II) following the substantial conclusion of negotiations in May and public release of the text earlier this month. Under the Supply Chain Agreement, IPEF partners agree to:

• Promote regulatory transparency in areas which may impact IPEF supply chains;

• Develop a shared understanding of global supply chain risks through each party identifying their critical sectors and key goods in their supply chains;

• Monitor for and address supply chain vulnerabilities; and

• Promote responsible business conduct and transparency in terms of upholding labor rights in supply chains.

Earlier this summer, the U.S. Dairy Export Council, National Milk Producers Federation, American Farm Bureau Federation and a number of other food and agriculture organizations sent a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai noting that while the agriculture community views IPEF as an opportunity to advance U.S. trade policy, it also is “critical that the United States resume its long-dormant pursuit of comprehensive free trade agreements and redouble its efforts to expand export markets for food and agricultural products made in the United States by reducing tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports.”

The ag groups explained that global competitors, notably across Europe, South America and Oceania, have been aggressive in wielding tariff-cutting, traditional free trade agreements to the advantage of their producers and to the detriment of U.S. farmers and producers. In addition to price advantages due to these preferential tariffs, the letter says the agreements have provided competitors the opportunity to shape global trading rules to better align with their policy priorities, and the United States must turn this around.

“In the interim, a well-designed IPEF could represent a key opportunity for American agricultural producers to reach a significant, growing region, and deliver for farmers and ranchers across the United States and consumers around the world. As talk of a November deal grows, substance, not timing, must drive the conclusion of negotiations to ensure a commercially meaningful result,” the ag groups urged.

To fully capture the potential of the framework, they added that IPEF must tackle key nontariff barriers that are hindering American exporters by securing commitments on:

• Specific common food and beverage term protections;

• Streamlining facility and product registration/listing requirements;

• Predictability of product certifications;

• U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-style text on sanitary and phytosanitary barriers to establish clearer and enforceable expectations on these types of regulatory measures;

• Addressing uneven regulatory pathways for products of agricultural biotechnology; and

• Preventing restrictions on marketing, branding, intellectual property rights, trademarks and digital practices, including e-commerce.

CMN

Cacique to cease operations in California, move to Texas

September 22, 2023

By Alyssa Mitchell

CITY OF INDUSTRY, Calif. — Cacique Foods, the maker of a leading brand of authentic Mexican-style cheeses, cremas, chorizos and salsas in the United States, this week announced that it has ceased operations at its dairy factory in City of Industry, California, and is relocating its dairy production to its new state-of-the-art facility in Amarillo, Texas.

Cacique Foods opened the new dairy processing facility in Amarillo earlier this year as it also marked the company’s 50th anniversary. Due to the interest in Hispanic foods exploding nationwide, the company saw an opportunity to create a new facility that will provide Cacique with greater production capacity and distribution points to meet growing demand for its products, company officials say. The facility in Amarillo also brought more than 200 new jobs to the area.

In a statement provided to Cheese Market News, Cacique Foods says it came to the decision to relocate from California to Texas after extensive analysis showed that consolidating business operations in Texas will help meet the growing demand for Cacique’s high-quality products nationwide.

“Cacique will always have roots in California, and the community to thank, who has been integral to Cacique’s history, growth and success for more than 50 years,” the company says. “While operations are moving, the West Coast remains an important region, and Cacique plans to stay connected and remain part of the community.”

The company notes it is offering employees as much support as possible, including financial packages, incentives to relocate, or providing out-placement services for those looking for new employment in California.

“Cacique is inviting all current employees to apply in hopes that members of the Cacique family make the decision to move. The intention is to map all current California-based jobs to the same positions in Texas,” the company says. “However, given that Cacique has different production lines and positions open in Amarillo, there may be some adjustments made to current positions as they move to Amarillo. The Cacique human resources team is working with each employee individually to discuss the specifics of their situation privately.”

Cacique officials add that the plant in City of Industry, California, is now closed, and the Irwindale Distribution Center is closing at the end of September.

Cacique Foods has hired Harry Davis & Company, a leading dairy industry market maker, to conduct an auction of the southern California equipment assets.

Harry Davis & Company is a leader in the food and beverage equipment market and will offer the assets of this massive facility at auction in early December. On offer will include more than 2,000 auction lots including product silos, pasteurization, homogenizers, milk and whey separators, process tanks, cheese and dairy packaging and an enormous selection of parts, utilities and general food facility equipment.
“The availability of Cacique’s late-model equipment is an outstanding opportunity for industry manufacturers to acquire production assets at a fraction of the cost and without the prohibitive lead time that manufacturers have grown accustomed to,” says Lenny Davis, CEO of Harry Davis & Company.

“A plant of this size with the capabilities to produce such a wide range of products, especially in this geographical area — there is a lot of equipment that has been hard to source in a timely fashion with increasing global lead times and logistics constraints,” Davis says. “This is a complete site closure, so everything from the specialized dairy equipment down to generic food factory items including utilities are being offered.”

Aaron Morgenstern, president of Harry Davis & Company, reiterates that the sale is a very unique opportunity for the purchase of late-model equipment that typically is not available with such a short lead time.

“I go to a lot of these sites, and this is definitely one of the nicest ones. The condition of the equipment is some of the best you’ll see available on the secondary market,” Morgenstern says.

CMN

August milk production down 0.3% vs. 2022 in major states

September 22, 2023

WASHINGTON — Milk production in the 24 major milk-producing states in August totaled 18.17 billion pounds, down 0.3% from August 2022, according to data released this week by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). For the entire United States, August milk production was estimated at 18.98 billion pounds, down 0.7% from August 2022. (All figures are rounded. Please see CMN’s Milk Production chart.)

NASS reports July’s revised production for the 24 major states totaled 18.23 billion pounds, a decrease of 27 million pounds or 0.1% from last month’s preliminary production estimate.

August production per cow in the 24 major states averaged 2,038 pounds, 2 pounds less than August 2022 and 8 pounds less than July. For the entire United States, production per cow in August is estimated at 2,021 pounds, 1 pound less than August 2022 and 7 pounds less than July.

NASS reports the number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major states was 8.91 million head in August, 15,000 head less than August 2022 and 1,000 head more than July. In the entire United States, there were an estimated 9.39 million milk cows in August, down 16,000 head from August 2022 and unchanged from July.

California led the nation’s milk production in August with 3.33 billion pounds of milk, down 3.7% from August 2022. Wisconsin followed with 2.76 billion pounds of milk produced in August, up 1.2% from August 2022.

CMN

Rabobank report says demand could heat up later this year

September 15, 2023

UTRECHT, Netherlands — The delicate balance of global milk supply and demand persists, and slowing global milk production eventually will match the tepid demand growth seen in most regions, preventing further price declines, says Rabobank in its latest Global Dairy Quarterly Q3 2023 report, “Progressing Past the Pain.”

In recent months, lower milk prices in most key global dairy regions have reduced supplies.

“In our view, however, a possible whiplash effect is growing in probability. We may see a demand resurgence emerging months before global milk output can recover,” says Lucas Fuess, senior analyst-dairy at Rabobank. “In the second quarter of this year, we declared that ‘it’s always darkest before the dawn.’ And although clouds remain this quarter, the storm will not last forever.”

The report notes that in the Northern Hemisphere, supply is contracting, driven by a declining herd and weaker yield in the United States and by variable weather and tight margins in the European Union (EU). All eyes are on New Zealand in the coming weeks as output ramps up quickly to the October peak. Initial expectations called for a more robust production season, especially against the prior season’s weakness. However, recent stark milk price cuts are compelling dairy farmers to lower production costs. These measures, coupled with El Niño’s wrath, mean a lower peak might emerge in the country for yet another year, Rabobank says.

“We are still advising the industry to watch out for El Niño’s wrath, or lack thereof, which could upend milk production in key parts of the world,” Fuess says. “A meaningful departure from normal weather patterns, especially in seasonally significant regions like Oceania, could shift production expectations.”

In this report, Rabobank lowers its 2023 milk production forecast. Milk production from the “Big 7” export regions — the United States, the EU, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay — now is anticipated to grow by 0.3% year over year in 2023. The downgrade from last quarter’s estimate of 0.5% is driven by reductions in most key global regions, including the United States, EU and New Zealand. Into 2024, output is expected to climb by 0.4%, far less than the 1.6% annual average gain seen from 2010 to 2020, Rabobank says.

Attention also remains laser-focused on both supply and demand in China, where the severity of the economic headwinds and the duration of the lull in economic growth are reducing the likelihood of a strong demand recovery, the report notes.

Leading dairy processors report modest demand recovery, but, to date, this has not been able to offset strong domestic milk production growth. Milk production growth will slow into the second half of 2023 and into 2024, but a complete market rebalance is not expected in the near term, and positive year-on-year imports are not expected until late 2024 or early 2025, Rabobank says.

Meanwhile, a “higher for longer” interest rate theme recently has been front of mind in U.S. markets, the report notes. The Fed’s guidance remains that rates are unlikely to be cut before 2024, with this viewpoint becoming increasingly accepted among traders. The resilience of the U.S. economy persists, but global economic growth is being watched closely to gauge dairy demand in the coming months.

CMN

Industry touts dairy’s benefits for Dietary Guidelines panel

September 15, 2023

WASHINGTON — Industry stakeholders touted the benefits of dairy and noted it is a critical component of a healthy diet in comments made this week at a meeting held by the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee.

Miquela Hanselman, regulatory affairs director at the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF), and Elle St. Pierre, a farmer-member of Dairy Farmers of America (DFA) and a world medalist track athlete who represented the United States in the women’s 1,500-meter race in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, both offered their perspectives on dairy’s role in diet before the panel that will shape the scientific report informing the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Both Hanselman and St. Pierre hold degrees in nutrition and public health.

“Nearly 90% of Americans don’t consume the recommended servings of dairy,” Hanselman said. “Dairy products have always been an integral part of the dietary guidelines. Milk is a good or excellent source of 13 essential nutrients, including calcium, potassium and vitamin D, three of the four nutrients of public health concern.”

Hanselman’s comments focused heavily on how dairy at all fat levels benefits diverse communities and how current guidelines work against including varieties of milk that Americans consume the most.

“With the scientific question focused on sources of saturated fats, this committee has the opportunity to remedy a previous oversight and include the newer science on dairy fats and the dairy matrix,” she said. “Dairy foods, regardless of fat level, appear to have either neutral or beneficial effects on chronic disease risks including cardiovascular disease, Type 2 diabetes, obesity and stroke. This committee shouldn’t default to the overly broad recommendation to avoid saturated fats regardless of food source.”

St. Pierre spoke out against the proliferation of plant-based imitation beverages that offer wildly inconsistent nutritional value, cautioning against any consideration of them as potential dairy replacements. Plant-based beverages “are so nutritionally different from real milk that whether one views them positively or negatively, their impact on health cannot be assumed to be the same as, or even similar to, that of milk,” said St. Pierre, who lives near Berkshire, Vermont. “I strongly caution against and oppose any inference that health impacts associated with milk consumption would apply to plant-based milk alternatives.”

Roberta Wagner, senior vice president for regulatory and scientific affairs for the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA), also provided oral testimony at this week’s meeting. In her testimony, Wagner stressed that 90% of Americans do not consume enough dairy to meet dietary recommendations, according to the 2020-2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA) report. Wagner urged the committee to maintain nutrient-rich dairy foods as a central part of a healthy diet, and she stressed that new science shows that limiting dairy based on fat level — as current guidelines recommend — does not lead to better health outcomes.

“An overwhelming body of scientific evidence demonstrates that dairy should be part of healthy eating patterns for all Americans, at all life stages and with various dietary needs,” Wagner said. “The DGA have long recognized the inherent benefits of dairy products, including milk, yogurt and cheese, as important sources of nutrients and associated with better health outcomes. At a time when people are not meeting DGA recommendations for dairy, deterring intake due to fat level is not science-based, nor is it in the best interest of public health.”

While the 2020-2025 DGA report prioritizes the consumption of lowfat and fat-free options, IDFA is urging the committee to review expanding scientific evidence demonstrating that consumption of dairy products, including full-fat products, is not tied to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease.

“By expanding the variety of dairy products that are recommended for consumption to Americans, we may narrow the gap between recommended servings and current intake,” Wagner said. “For example, adolescents on average consume 1.6 to 2 servings of dairy per day, well below the recommendations of 3 servings per day. We urge the committee to release the protocol for the systematic review of food sources with saturated fat so appropriate scientific studies can be shared to inform the committee’s recommendations.”

Wagner’s comments also stressed the wide availability and affordability of nutrient-rich dairy products that are lactose-free and low in lactose for people who want solutions to address lactose intolerance and lactose sensitivity.

This week’s meeting is part of the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee’s information-gathering process for the next set of guidelines. The committee is convened every five years by the Departments of Agriculture and the of Health and Human Services to make recommendations for American diets, affecting numerous federal nutrition programs.

CMN

USDA lowers milk production, ups most product price forecasts

September 15, 2023

WASHINGTON — The U.S. milk production forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are lowered from last month, to 227.5 billion pounds and 230.4 billion pounds, respectively, reflecting lower cow inventory reported in the recent Milk Production report. The reduction in cow numbers is expected to continue through 2023 and into the first half of 2024 as returns remain under pressure, says USDA in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Tuesday.

For 2023, output per cow is forecast to increase at a lower rate than previously expected on recent data and the expected impact of high temperatures during the summer, USDA notes. However, the forecast of milk per cow for 2024 is unchanged.

Fat basis import forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are lowered, largely driven by recent trade data and lower expected imports of cheese and butter throughout the forecast period, the report says. Skim-solids basis imports are unchanged for 2023 and 2024. Fat basis export forecasts are unchanged for 2023, while skim-solids basis export forecasts are lowered on weaker whey exports.

For 2024, exports on a fat basis are lowered on expectations of fewer shipments of butter, fat-containing products and cheese, while exports on a skim-solids basis are reduced, reflecting lower cheese, whey and whey products shipments.

For 2023, forecasts for cheese, butter and whey prices are raised — to $1.810 per pound, $2.540 per pound and $0.345 per pound, respectively — on current price strength, but nonfat dried milk (NDM) is lowered to $1.160 per pound, USDA says. Both Class III and Class IV prices are raised, reflecting changes in their component values.

For 2024, price forecasts for cheese, butter and whey are raised — to $1.845, $2.550 and $0.315 per pound, respectively — on lowered milk production and continued firm demand. NDM price forecasts are lowered to $1.090 per pound. The Class III price forecast is raised on higher cheese and whey prices while the Class IV price forecast is raised as the higher butter price more than offsets the lower NDM price.

The 2023 all milk price forecast is raised to $20.40 per hundredweight, and the 2024 all milk price is raised to $20.30 per hundredweight, according to the report.

CMN

Federal Milk Marketing Order hearing shows co-op strength

Jim Mulhern, National Milk Producers Federation

Dairy research keeping pace with changing consumer

Katie Brown, National Dairy Council

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