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Top Stories
May 23, 2025 |
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MADISON, Wis. — The Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection (DATCP) this week announced the implementation of the mandatory National Milk Testing Strategy (NMTS), required by USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). This comprehensive program aims to bolster surveillance of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI/H5N1) in the nation’s dairy herds and ensure swift action to identify and address H5N1-affected herds. Wisconsin soon will initiate mandatory monthly milk sampling under the NMTS. With help from industry partners, it is expected that one milk sample will be obtained per dairy farm each month and tested at the Wisconsin Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory (WVDL). These samples primarily will be gathered through existing milk quality labs that work with licensed bulk milk weighers and samplers, ensuring minimal disruption to dairy operations while obtaining farm-level results. If H5N1 is detected in a herd, DATCP’s Division of Animal Health will be notified by the WVDL, and the Division of Animal Health will notify the farm. DATCP’s Division of Animal Health will follow up and work with affected farms regarding quarantine requirements. Any H5N1 detections also will be confirmed by the National Veterinary Services Laboratories. DATCP will provide updates on the NMTS collection process as the program develops. Stakeholders are encouraged to visit www.datcp.wi.gov for additional information, resources and questions. The Wisconsin Dairy Products Association (WDPA) applauded DATCP for its proactive role in implementing the NMTS. “Protecting both animal and public health is essential to maintaining consumer confidence in Wisconsin dairy,” says Amy Winters, executive director, WDPA. “This initiative strengthens our ability to detect and respond swiftly to potential outbreaks, and we are fully supportive of the science-based, Wisconsin-specific approach being taken.” WDPA also commends the collaborative effort between state and federal agencies, veterinary scientists and industry stakeholders to uphold rigorous health standards while allowing dairy businesses to operate efficiently and safely. “WDPA is committed to collaborating with DATCP, USDA, dairy processors, farmers, haulers and testing laboratories to help ensure the success of this testing strategy — through clear communication, practical implementation and a shared focus on protecting herd health and public trust,” Winters adds. “Wisconsin’s dairy industry has long set the standard for quality, and this effort reinforces that commitment,” she says. “By strengthening animal health protections and leveraging the proven safety of pasteurization, this testing strategy ensures consumers can continue to trust the milk and dairy products made in our state.” The Wisconsin Cheese Makers Association (WCMA) also says its members appreciate DATCP for its efforts to work in partnership with dairy manufacturers and processors with the shared goal of protecting the Wisconsin dairy industry. “America’s dairy processors are dedicated to a noble mission: creating safe, delicious, nutritious products to feed the world,” says Rebekah Sweeney, senior director, programs and policy, WCMA. “As research has shown — and FDA and USDA have affirmed — pasteurization works to inactivate the H5N1 virus in milk. Broad participation in the H5N1 National Milk Testing Strategy program further demonstrates the care of processors, regulators and farmers to ensuring all dairy products are delivering on the highest-quality standards. The virus has not been detected in Wisconsin’s dairy herds, and regular milk testing is designed to help prevent its spread and contain any future detection.” According to USDA, 45 U.S. states currently are enrolled in NMTS and are performing active surveillance. Seven states currently are affected by bird flu as ongoing testing and surveillance activities demonstrate its presence in the states’ dairy cattle. Nine are marked “unaffected” as ongoing testing and surveillance have demonstrated the absence of disease, while the rest are “provisionally unaffected,” the status given as each state phases into the NMTS, unless a new case of HPAI in dairy cattle has been confirmed in the state within the last 30 days. For more information on the NMTS, visit www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock/nmts. CMN |
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May 23, 2025 |
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WASHINGTON — U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins yesterday joined President Donald Trump in releasing the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission Report at the White House. The report is a call to evaluate the many reasons American families, particularly children, face high rates of chronic health issues, and it encourages additional research and education on diet, environmental exposures, lack of physical activity and use of medications. “We must do more to improve the health outcomes of our kids and families, and President Trump knows agriculture is at the heart of the solution. America’s farmers and ranchers dedicate their lives to the noble cause of feeding their country and the world, and in doing so have created the safest and most abundant and affordable food supply in the world. We are working to make sure our kids and families are consuming the healthiest food we produce,” Rollins says. “I look forward to continuing to work with Secretary Kennedy and other members of the MAHA Commission to improve our nation’s health.” USDA notes that in the last few weeks, Rollins has worked with America’s dairy producers to voluntarily remove artificial colors from products sold to K-12 schools for the National School Lunch and Breakfast Programs beginning during the 2026-2027 school year. Rollins and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. also are working together in crafting the latest Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGAs), which are set to be released in the near future. The agencies say they are working to ensure federal nutrition advice is sound, simple and clear, and that the guidelines will prioritize whole, healthy and nutritious foods such as dairy, fruits, vegetables and meats, and suggest limitations of foods high in sugar and salt. In a statement, the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) says it urges the MAHA Commission to embrace sound science and evidence, and to continue to work with IDFA and its dairy industry partners to build a healthier future. “U.S. dairy farmers, processors and the entire dairy supply chain share the MAHA Commission’s goal to reduce childhood chronic disease, and at IDFA we’re taking bold action alongside the federal government to ensure every child can access and benefit from dairy nutrition. In the past two years alone, dairy food companies have committed to reducing added sugar and removing certified artificial colors in dairy products served in schools. Appealing to all consumers, dairy companies are offering wholesome new products rich in nutrients, lower in added sugar and higher in protein, while reducing or removing lactose and extending shelf life,” says Michael Dykes, president and CEO, IDFA. “We appreciate that the commission’s assessment recognizes the many positive health outcomes associated with dairy products and highlights the role of improving health through dairy incentives in SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program),” Dykes adds. “Every day in communities across the country, the dairy industry is partnering with federal, state and local leaders to improve access to dairy foods for low-income Americans through school meals, WIC (Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children) and SNAP, offering education and nutrition counseling on creating a healthier diet with dairy’s 13 essential nutrients critical for growth, development and immune function.” The National Farmers Union (NFU) also expressed appreciation for the attention this report brings to the health and well-being of America’s children, while also urging the administration to include the voices of family farmers and ranchers, and to ensure that solutions are rooted in sound science, fairness and transparency. “Farmers and ranchers live, work and raise their families on the same land where they grow the safe, nutritious food that feeds our nation and the world. Policy solutions must ensure family farmers retain the tools they need to support their livelihoods and the well-being of their communities. Innovation has long been a cornerstone of American agriculture, and we must be cautious not to stymie progress with one-size-fits-all restrictions,” says NFU President Rob Larew. “Farmers are key partners in building a healthier food system. But meaningful progress requires that farmers have a seat at the table,” he adds. “Disregarding the expertise of respected regulatory bodies and leaving farmers out of the conversation undermines public trust and puts the future of American agriculture and rural economies at risk.” Other ag and consumer organizations were more outright in their criticism of the report. The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) notes that while the recommendations in the report are not legally binding, the assertions made in the report — including those on pesticides regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency — have the potential to significantly impact American farmers, producers and ranchers, and the public’s trust in the food system. “NAWG is deeply concerned with the content and implications of the MAHA Commission’s report. Throughout the process, NAWG and other agricultural stakeholders have worked in good faith to provide the commission with accurate, science-based information about modern food production practices in the United States,” says NAWG President Pat Clements. “Unfortunately, the report contains misleading claims that could undermine public trust in our nation’s food system.” Meanwhile, the Center for Science in the Public Interest (CSPI) says that many of the suggestions in the report to help improve healthy eating are undermined by the administration’s policies. “How is the American diet to improve when Republicans are hell-bent on cutting SNAP benefits, slashing school meals, ripping millions of Americans from their health insurance coverage, withdrawing proposed rules that would reduce foodborne Salmonella and laying off food inspectors? The administration has slashed programs to bring local food into schools, eviscerated government funding for research on nutrition and health, eliminated the office responsible for stopping lead poisoning in children and are threatening access to life-saving vaccines,” says CSPI President Peter Lurie. CMN |
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April U.S. milk production totals 19.4B pounds, up 1.5% from ’24 |
May 23, 2025 |
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WASHINGTON — Milk production in the 24 major milk-producing states in April totaled 18.60 billion pounds, up 1.6% from April 2024’s 18.31 billion pounds, according to data released this week by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). March revised production for the 24 major states was 19.08 billion pounds, an increase of 26 million pounds or 0.1% from last month’s preliminary production estimate. (All figures are rounded. Please see CMN’s Milk Production chart.) For the entire United States, April milk production was estimated at 19.37 billion pounds, up 1.5% from April 2024’s 19.08 billion pounds. April production per cow in the 24 major states averaged 2,071 pounds, up 12 pounds from April 2024 and down 54 pounds from March. For the entire United States, production per cow in April is estimated at 2,055 pounds, up 11 pounds from April 2024 and down 55 pounds from March. NASS reports the number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major states was 8.98 million head in April, up 93,000 head from April 2024 and up 7,000 head from March. In the entire United States, there were an estimated 9.43 million head in April, up 89,000 head from April 2024 and up 5,000 cows from March. California led the nation’s milk production in April with 3.48 billion pounds of milk, down 1.4% from April 2024. Wisconsin followed with 2.71 billion pounds of milk produced in April, up 0.1% from April 2024. CMN |
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May 16, 2025 |
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WASHINGTON — The White House announced this week that the United States and China have reached an agreement to reduce tariffs that had escalated to 145% on Chinese goods entering the United States, and 125% on American products entering China. Negotiators from the United States and China met in Geneva, Switzerland, over last weekend, and on Monday they issued a joint statement affirming the importance of their bilateral economic and trade relationship to both countries and to the global economy. The statement also noted the importance of a sustainable, long-term and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship. The United States and China have agreed each will lower tariffs by 115% while retaining an additional 10% tariff. Other U.S. measures will remain in place. This means baseline U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will drop to 30%, while baseline Chinese tariffs on American products will drop to 10%, effective Wednesday, May 14, for 90 days through Aug. 9. The White House notes that while the United States is removing the additional tariffs it had imposed on China April 8 and April 9, it will retain duties imposed on China prior to April 2, including Section 301 tariffs, Section 232 tariffs, tariffs imposed in response to what the president labeled a fentanyl national emergency invoked pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, and Most Favored Nation tariffs. It adds that this agreement works toward addressing the U.S. goods trade deficit with China to deliver real and lasting benefits to American workers, farmers and businesses. “For too long, unfair trade practices and America’s massive trade deficit with China have fueled the offshoring of American jobs and the decline of our manufacturing sector,” the White House says, noting that the U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $295.4 billion in 2024 — the largest among any U.S. trading partner. China will modify the application of its additional ad valorem tariff rate, suspending 24% of that rate for an initial period of 90 days, while retaining the remaining ad valorem rate of 10% on those articles. China says it also will adopt all necessary administrative measures to suspend or remove non-tariff countermeasures taken against the United States since April 2, 2025. The joint statement says the United States and China will establish a mechanism to continue discussions about economic and trade relations, and these discussions may be conducted alternately in China and the United States, or in third countries agreed upon by the parties. In ongoing negotiations, the United States will be represented by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. China will be represented by He Lifeng, vice premier of the state council. The International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) notes that in February and March, China imposed 10% and 15% retaliatory tariffs on select U.S. goods, including agricultural products, and that dairy products have faced the 10% additional tariff rate since March 10. China’s 10% and 15% tariffs on agricultural products from the United States will continue through this 90-day suspension. National Farmers Union (NFU) President Rob Larew says NFU is encouraged to see the administration responding to the concerns of farmers and ranchers by taking steps to ease trade tensions with China. “Farmers spent years developing China into an important market for many agricultural products; future trade agreements must build on these decades of work,” Larew says, adding that while this week’s news is a positive next step, farmers continue to face significant uncertainty. “We are watching these negotiations closely and expect any future deal to deliver lasting, meaningful benefits for America’s family farmers and ranchers,” he says. CMN |
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House Ag Committee approves piece of reconciliation package |
May 16, 2025 |
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WASHINGTON — The House Agriculture Committee this week advanced its piece of the budget reconciliation package on a party-line vote. The measure now heads to the House Budget Committee for a full markup. The House Ag Committee provisions improve the farmer safety net from the 2018 Farm Bill but also cut a projected $290 billion out of food assistance over the next decade. Under the plan, farmers would see better reference prices, a broader band of protection levels under commodity and insurance programs, and see the payment limit for farm programs increased. The bill also seeks to shift food assistance spending to the states to make up for cuts to those programs. The Agriculture Committee is just one of the committees that held markups this week on different sections of the farm bill to add to a budget reconciliation package the House is putting together meant primarily to extend the 2017 tax cuts, news reports say. The “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” as it is being called, also would cut social spending in programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Under the bill, states would pay at least 5% of the SNAP benefit costs starting in 2028. States with higher error rates on payments could end up paying to 25%, which could top $1 billion for some states. The bill also increases state administrative costs. Another provision would tighten rules around SNAP eligibility, especially for people considered able-bodied and without dependents who are not meeting work requirements for the program. The bill also would require parents with children age 7 or older to have at least one adult working or volunteering 20 hours a week or risk losing food benefits. “For far too long, the SNAP program has drifted from a bridge to support American households in need to a permanent destination riddled with bureaucratic inefficiencies, misplaced incentives and limited accountability,” said House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., in a statement after releasing the House Ag Committee package. “This portion of the One Big, Beautiful Bill restores the program’s original intent, offering a temporary helping hand while encouraging work, cracking down on loopholes exploited by states and protecting taxpayer dollars while supporting the hardworking men and women of American agriculture.” Senate Ag Committee Chairman John Boozman, R-Ark., in a statement said he applauds Chairman Thompson’s leadership in advancing these provisions and taking this critical step to prevent a tax increase on hardworking farmers, ranchers and producers. “We share the same goal to deliver on President Trump’s agenda and address the immediate challenges facing farm country,” Boozman says. “The Senate will carefully consider the House’s approach to achieve this.” However, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., ranking member of the Senate Ag Committee, criticized the more than $290 billion in cuts to SNAP. “Instead of working with Democrats to lower costs from President Trump’s across-the-board tariffs, House Klobuchar also cited a report recently released by the National Grocers Association that found SNAP funding supports approximately 388,000 jobs and $20 billion in direct wages, creating $4.5 billion in state and federal tax revenue. “Beyond the immediate impact cuts will have on SNAP recipients, cuts to SNAP benefits will also create downstream economic harms,” she says. Dairy and ag stakeholders praised other aspects of the bill they say will help the farm economy. “We commend Chairman GT Thompson and committee members for advancing important investments that will help support and create opportunities for dairy,” says Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF). “We will work with lawmakers to advance these provisions through Congress, knowing that dairy is well-served by what the House Agriculture Committee is approving.” Doud says NMPF is pleased that the bill extends the Dairy Margin Coverage program through 2031, providing dairy producers with much-needed continuity. The package also bases the program’s production history calculation on a farmer’s highest production year out of 2021, 2022 or 2023, an update that better reflects recent on-farm production levels. The bill also funds mandatory USDA dairy processing plant cost surveys every two years, which will better inform future make allowance conversations. Finally, it includes long-term resources for important trade promotion, conservation, research and animal health programs. NMPF notes that the legislation ultimately will be folded into a broader budget reconciliation package that will include an extension of current tax policies, among other areas. NMPF supports House Ways and Means “Whether it’s risk management or tax issues, the stakes are enormous for Congress to get the policy right in this legislation,” Doud says. “House committees have done good work this week to start major elements of this bill on the right track for dairy farmers and the cooperatives they own.” National Farmers Union (NFU) President Rob Larew says that while NFU appreciates that the House “Proposals to strengthen crop insurance, bolster the farm safety net and maintain voluntary conservation programs are important steps toward securing the future of our food system,” Larew says, adding, however, that NFU’s members know that the process matters. “Pitting farm and nutrition priorities against one another creates unnecessary division and weakens the broader effort. A strong farm bill — however it comes together — must reflect the full scope of challenges facing agriculture and rural communities, and it must work for everyone it touches: farmers, ranchers and families across the country,” he says. CMN |
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May 16, 2025 |
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WASHINGTON — The 2025 milk production forecast is raised to $227.3 billion pounds this month, up 400 million pounds from the previous month on expectations of an increased cow herd and a faster growth rate in output per cow, all based on the latest information published in the Milk Production report from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, says USDA in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released this week. USDA this month also included forecasts for 2026 in the report. Milk production in 2026 is forecast to increase from 2025 to 227.9 billion pounds, driven by an expanding milk cow herd and slightly higher milk per cow. The import forecast on a fat basis for 2025 is lowered in this month’s report on reduced expectations of butter shipments. The skim-solids import forecast is unchanged. The fat basis export forecast is raised on competitively priced butter and cheese. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised on increased shipments of whey products, lactose and cheese, USDA says. Commercial exports in 2026 are forecast to be lower than in 2025 on a fat basis but higher on a skim-solids basis due to additional exports of whey products, USDA adds. Commercial imports are forecast to increase on a fat basis in 2026 due primarily to increases in imports of butter. Imports on a skim-solids basis are forecast to increase slightly. Domestic use in 2026 is expected to increase on both a fat basis and skim-solids basis. Butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey price forecasts in 2025 all are raised from the previous month on recent prices and increased export demand for the second half of the year, USDA notes. Cheese now is forecast to average $1.840 per pound, butter $2.460, NDM $1.240 and whey $0.535. The 2025 Class III and Class IV price forecasts also are raised, to $18.70 and $18.45 per hundredweight, respectively, the report says. The all milk price for 2025 is increased to $21.60. Dairy product prices are forecast to be lower for butter, NDM, cheese and whey in 2026 compared with 2025, primarily due to increased milk supplies, USDA says. Cheese is forecast to average $1.800 per pound, butter $2.450, NDM $1.215 and whey $0.470. As a result, Class III and Class IV prices also are forecast lower in 2026, at $17.50 and $18.10 per hundredweight, respectively, USDA says. The all milk price in 2026 is forecast to be $21.15. CMN |
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May 9, 2025 |
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WASHINGTON — In March, the United States exported 245,755 metric tons of dairy products (FAS, total), up 2.8% from March 2024, according to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. U.S. dairy exports in March were valued at $842.5 million, up 13.8% from a year earlier. Imports of dairy products to the United States totaled 82,179 metric tons in March, up 9.3% from March 2024, and were valued at $503.8 million, up 5.8%, according to USDA. March’s dairy exports marked the highest monthly volume since February 2023 and brought the first quarter nearly back to even, according to the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) in its monthly analysis (blog.usdec.org/usdairyexporter/us-dairy-exports-rebound-in-march-0?). U.S. cheese exports in March totaled 49,287 metric tons, marking the second-best month ever for cheese, just 1.5% below the monthly record set a year earlier, USDEC notes. A number of markets posted increases, including Japan, Southeast Asia, the Caribbean and Central “Moving forward, U.S. suppliers are facing strong prior-year results again in April and May,” USDEC says. “At the same time, pricing remains in favor of American products, particularly given recent changes. At this week’s Global Dairy Trade auction, Cheddar prices soared 12% to $5,519 per metric ton, extending the gap between Oceania and the U.S. and more than making up for recent gains in CME block prices.” U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NDM/SMP) exports were up 1.4% in March to 64,575 metric tons and the first positive month of year-over-year trade in six months, USDEC reports, noting that U.S. prices have fallen over the last several months, due to a recovery in domestic production as well as softer global demand. With U.S. prices competitive again, there could be some renewed interest in U.S. milk powders. “However, the threat of tariffs is causing some global buyers to balk at buying U.S. product out of fear of tariff placement while product is in transit, despite most countries’ decisions to refrain from retaliatory measures at this stage,” USDEC says, adding that uncertainty from tariffs likely will mean U.S. prices will remain at a discount. U.S. exports of low-protein whey totaled 46,828 metric tons in March, up 3.2% from a year earlier, driven by purchases from China before the biggest retaliatory tariff hikes took hold, USDEC says. China began applying an additional 10% retaliatory tariff on U.S. dry whey and whey protein concentrate (WPC) in mid-March, while an additional 125% tariff was applied in early April to dry whey, WPC and whey permeate. “Buyers who got in under the wire drove total YOY U.S. low-protein whey exports to China by 34% in March — in line with the year-to-date trend,” USDEC explains. “While those are hefty gains, it would be extremely surprising if demand continued to weather the full weight of the retaliatory tariffs that started in April.” March U.S. lactose exports totaled 36,019 metric tons, down 0.8% from a year earlier. March U.S. butterfat exports totaled 8,134 metric tons, up more than 200% year-over-year. CMN |
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March cheese production up; USDA revises NDM stock levels |
May 9, 2025 |
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WASHINGTON — March U.S. cheese production, excluding cottage cheese, totaled 1.226 billion pounds, up 1.4% from March 2024, according to data in the March Dairy Products Report released this week by USDA’s Natural Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). (All figures are rounded. Please see CMN’s Dairy Production chart on page 14.) March cheese production was up 9.8% from the 1.116 billion pounds produced in February, but down 0.8% on a daily average basis. Italian-type cheese production in March totaled 517.9 million pounds, down 0.2% from March 2024. Production of Mozzarella, the largest component of Italian-type cheese production, totaled 405.8 million pounds in March, down 0.9% from a year earlier. American-type cheese production in March totaled 500.2 million pounds, up 4.6% from March 2024. Production of Cheddar, the largest component of American-type cheese, totaled 347.7 million pounds, up 5.4% from March 2024. Wisconsin was the leading cheese-producing state with 304.4 million pounds produced in March, up 2.8% from March 2024. California followed with 215.2 million pounds produced in March, down 0.1% from a year earlier. U.S. production of butter totaled 229.0 million pounds in March, up 8.6% from March 2024. March butter production was up 12.9% from February’s 202.7 million pounds, and up 2.0% on a daily average basis. California was the leading butter-producing state with 66.6 million pounds produced in March, up 1.1% from March 2024. Meanwhile, analysts note that in this month’s Dairy Products Report, USDA reported a much lower-than-expected March end-of-month manufacturers’ stocks total for nonfat dry milk (NFDM or NDM) — almost 100 million pounds lower than forecast — which they say was driven largely by a revision to February stocks. “That’s no typo — it’s likely a record error for the NFDM stocks forecast driven largely by a -78.9 million pound revision to February stocks,” says Nate Donnay, director of market insight at StoneX Group Inc., in Wednesday’s edition of StoneX’s Early Morning Update report. “While February NFDM stocks looked heavy and were larger than expected initially, this is still a mind-bending downward revision.” Betty Berning, contributing dairy economist for HighGround Dairy, confirms that she spoke with USDA, and the revision is accurate. USDA revised 2023 and 2024 NDM stocks in its Annual Dairy Products Report released April 25, and Berning explains last year’s NDM inventories were taken down in every month, with December’s final tally at 202.5 million pounds, 53.5 million pounds less than what was printed in the March Dairy Products Report. “USDA will only revise one month back on its Dairy Products Report. This means that although 2024’s data was drastically revised at the end of April 2025, at the next monthly Dairy Products Report (released Tuesday), only February’s data could be changed, hence the very large revision to February and unchanged numbers from January,” she adds. Donnay tells Cheese Market News that this revision could have some impact on dairy markets, though it is just one of multiple supportive developments this week. “There are a lot of things to unpack,” he explains. “First, the market was strengthening prior to this report, then we got a very bullish NFDM export number and we had a bullish GDT auction on the same day the March Dairy Products report came out. So I don’t think we can attribute all of the strength we’ve seen in NFDM to the stocks’ revision.” The second thing to note is how much the market is driven by actual supply and demand fundamentals versus perceptions of supply and demand based on USDA data, he continues. “What if we had no data from the USDA, would dairy prices be completely disconnected from supply and demand fundamentals? Probably not,” he says. “Actual supply and demand set prices; the USDA is just trying to measure that supply and demand. The USDA data does color people’s perceptions, so it does have some impact on the market, but it’s hard to tell how much it matters.” Finally, he questions how much these new inventory numbers can be trusted. “They imply very strong domestic disappearance, which doesn’t line up well with anecdotal comments,” Berning also says the big downward revisions are somewhat bullish to markets, as there is less NDM than initially thought. “Demand has not been great, though, and explains why prices have not exploded higher,” she says. “Exports were weak in 2024, falling 8% versus 2023, and combined production of SMP/NDM was at its lowest level since 2020 due to lower demand. “Exports thus far in 2025 aren’t overly exciting either, up just 1% year-to-date through March.” She adds that the January-March 2024 numbers also trailed the same quarter in 2023 by 8%, meaning these also were far from healthy. “Although March’s stocks of 263 million pounds are at the bottom half for the month over the past 10 years, with March 2024, 2017 and 2016 ranking lower, excess powder in warehouses may not be needed to keep up with the current demand pipeline,” she predicts. “U.S. prices are in line with the rest of the world, and with all of the tariff drama, it seems unlikely that the export situation is going to change much in the coming months.” CMN |
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U.S., UK reach trade deal; EU shares list of countermeasures |
May 9, 2025 |
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WASHINGTON — Yesterday the White House announced a historic trade deal between the United States and United Kingdom (UK), noting that it will significantly expand U.S. market access in the UK, including a $5 billion opportunity for new exports for U.S. farmers, ranchers and producers. “The deal includes billions of dollars of increased market access for American exports, especially in agriculture, dramatically increasing access for American beef, ethanol and virtually all of the products produced by our great farmers,” says President Trump, adding that the UK also will reduce or eliminate numerous nontariff barriers against U.S. products. Among the agricultural benefits, the White House says this trade deal: • Includes more than $700 million in ethanol exports and $250 million in other agricultural products, like beef; • Commits the countries to work together to enhance industrial and agricultural market access; • Closes loopholes and increases U.S. firms’ competitiveness in the UK’s procurement market; and • Ensures streamlined customs procedures for U.S. exports. The reciprocal tariff rate of 10% on UK and other imports, which was imposed April 2, still is in effect. The White House also notes that the UK maintains certain tariff and nontariff barriers that restrict market access and create an unfair playing field for American workers and businesses. For example, the UK imposes tariffs that can exceed 125% on meat, poultry and dairy products on top of maintaining non-science-based standards that adversely affect U.S. exports. Michael Dykes, president and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA), applauded the announcement of this trade deal between the United States and the UK that promises to expand access for U.S. agricultural goods, reduce tariffs and remove barriers to trade. “Some estimates value the deal for U.S. agriculture at up to $5 billion in new market access opportunities. IDFA has been advocating for U.S. dairy to be part of those opportunities as we look to improve our bilateral cooperation and build upon the $19.5 million in dairy exports that the United States sent to the United Kingdom last year,” Dykes says. “For too long, the UK has limited America’s food and agricultural exports to the world’s sixth largest economy, and now President Trump’s deal promises to level the playing field,” he adds. “IDFA looks forward to studying the details of this agreement as they emerge, especially specifics on relief and new market access opportunities for U.S. dairy products. The United States offers the world’s most wholesome, high-quality and affordable dairy products, and IDFA is excited to work with our member companies to bring these delicious products to more consumers in the United Kingdom.” Meanwhile, the European Union (EU) on Wednesday announced a list of U.S. imports that could be subject to countermeasures if ongoing EU-U.S. negotiations do not result in a mutually beneficial outcome and the removal of U.S. tariffs. The list, open for public consultation through June 10, includes U.S. imports worth 95 billion euros (approximately US$107 billion), covering a broad range of industrial and agricultural products. Among the dairy products on the list are food preparations for infant formula, milk protein concentrates and whey protein concentrates. The EU also announced it will launch a World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute against the United States on its universal tariffs and its tariffs on cars and car parts by formally lodging a request for consultations. “Tariffs are already having a negative impact on the global economies. The EU remains fully committed to finding negotiated outcomes with the U.S.,” says Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president. “We believe there are good deals to be made for the benefit of consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic. At the same time, we continue preparing for all possibilities, and the consultation launched (this week) will help guide us in this necessary work.” In other trade news this week, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer traveled to Geneva, Switzerland, to meet with USTR staff at the USTR Mission to the WTO. Plans included meeting with President Karin Keller-Sutter of Switzerland to discuss negotiations about reciprocal trade, as well as meeting with his counterpart from the People’s Republic of China to discuss trade matters. “At President Trump’s direction, I am negotiating with countries to rebalance our trade relations to achieve reciprocity, open new markets and protect America’s economic and national security,” Greer said earlier this week. “I look forward to having productive meetings with some of my counterparts as well as visiting with my team in Geneva who all work diligently to advance U.S. interests on a range of multilateral issues.” CMN |
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Today's Cheese Spot Trading |
Cheese Production U.S. Total March 1.226 bil. lbs. Milk Production U.S. Total April 19.370 bil. lbs. |
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Taste of tradition: Evolution of Halloumi still honors its roots |
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