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CoBank Quarterly: Ag economy grapples with market volatility |
April 10, 2026 |
DENVER — The U.S. economy has continued to perform reasonably well despite a growing constellation of warning signs. Buoyed by an escalating stock market in January and February and massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI), U.S. GDP likely grew above 2% in the first quarter as the unemployment rate held around 4.3% and consumers maintained spending growth above 2%. However, surging energy costs and extreme volatility in oil markets resulting from the ongoing Middle East conflict could shift the trajectory of the U.S. economy for the remainder of the year, says CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange in a new quarterly report.
According to the report, rural communities are hit harder by rising gasoline and diesel prices because fuel is a larger and less flexible part of daily life and the local economy. Longer driving distances, limited public transportation and heavy reliance on diesel intensive activities like farming, freight and construction mean price spikes show up quickly in household budgets and business costs.
“Higher diesel prices also raise the cost of moving food and goods into rural areas, pushing up local prices and amplifying the economic hit compared with urban areas that have more alternatives and competition,” says Teri Viswanath, lead power, energy and water economist with CoBank. “More broadly, the effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the stepped-up attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf could be long-lasting and have probably not been fully priced into U.S. consumer markets.”
Despite persistent signs of a weakening labor market — declining job openings, weak wage growth and minimal job creation — the broader economy has continued to trudge forward like a tractor in low gear, the report says. But rising energy costs will boost headline inflation by about 1% in the coming months. The longer-term effects of higher energy costs will be felt throughout the year as higher transportation and input costs work their way into every segment of the economy.
Farm and rural advocates continue their calls for swift and urgent action on a new farm bill, more aid and trade certainty. The 2026 Farm Bill passed the House Agriculture Committee on a bipartisan vote in March after over 20 hours of debate.
Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., hopes to continue to secure support from his most conservative Republicans, and to increase the number of House Democrats supporting the bill to ensure House passage when Congress reconvenes in mid-April, the report notes. The so-called “skinny” farm bill contains over 800 pages of program and policy improvements that will be of assistance in the current agriculture economy. These programs were last updated in 2018, when the last farm bill was written.
• Dairy outlook
For decades, U.S. dairy markets have been balanced for butterfat with excess protein destined for the export market. But the tide has turned, and America may be structurally short on dairy protein moving forward, the report says. The changing dynamics between U.S. butterfat and protein production will cause more price fluctuation as dairy processors look to balance products in both domestic and international markets. As the transition unfolds, there will be more market volatility ahead.
“We will balance product flows based on dairy protein production, and butterfat will need to find new markets, with the export market being a significant focus,” says Corey Geiger, lead economist, dairy, at CoBank. “This transition will create more market volatility, as we have already witnessed from August 2025 through March 2026.”
Dairy farmers and processors should consider hedging opportunities when market prices look favorable and cover expenses because small product movements could significantly move prices, he adds.
Geiger notes butter prices on the CME began to drop from $2.44 per pound on Aug. 1, 2025, to $1.50 per pound by mid-November just when butter sales typically would peak as the holiday season approached. Spot butter prices since have improved to the $1.75- to $2-per-pound range.
“Domestic market demand didn’t improve spot prices; export markets did,” Geiger says. “The U.S. exported an impressive 269 million pounds of butterfat and anhydrous milk fat in 2025, boosting total export volume 271% from the previous year. More importantly to balancing markets, 60% of those 269 million pounds of butterfat were exported in the second half of the year when the U.S. needed to move inventory.”
This huge increase in domestic butterfat production has created significant volatility in Class III cheese and whey markets, and an even greater downturn in Class IV butter and powder markets, he notes.
Meanwhile, higher prices and increasingly cost-conscious consumers continue to take a toll on restaurant and retail grocery sales. The sagging numbers have prompted activist investors to play a more prominent role in corporate decision making, the report notes. In packaged food and beverage, activists have emphasized structural efficiency and simplification, targeting reductions in overhead, SKUs and brands through divestitures. The restaurant sector also has seen considerable activism, most often encouraging closures or divestitures. These efforts come as consumers adjust to higher prices for gas and other goods and services amidst moderate wage growth, which has prompted a shift away from dining out to more at-home meals.
To read the outlook, visit www.cobank.com/knowledge-exchange/quarterly/quarterly-2026-q1-april.
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Valley Milk, Rizo Lopez form Francisco Foods joint venture |
April 10, 2026 |
MODESTO, Calif. — Valley Milk LLC, a California dairy ingredient producer founded by multi-generational Central Valley dairy families, nutritionists and veterinarians, this week announced the formation of Francisco Foods LLC, a newly established entity that has acquired substantially all assets of Rizo-Lopez Foods Inc. out of bankruptcy proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of California.
Francisco Foods LLC is a joint venture majority-owned by Valley Milk LLC, with the Rizo family retaining a meaningful ownership stake through Rilosa LLC, an entity controlled by Edwin and Ivan Rizo, founders of Rizo-Lopez Foods.
Rizo-Lopez Foods Inc. filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy Sept. 15, 2025, after a Listeria contamination that resulted in an FDA consent decree prohibiting manufacturing.
While Rizo-Lopez Foods Inc. will cease to exist, its spirit, workforce and loyal customer base live on, officials say. With the support of Valley Milk, the business has evolved into Francisco Foods LLC, emerging stronger and with a renewed commitment to excellence. The Tio Francisco brand, synonymous with over 35 years of award-winning Hispanic-style dairy products distributed nationwide, will continue and build upon that proud tradition.
“This partnership is a natural extension of Valley Milk’s commitment to the Central Valley community and the dairy industry,” says Damien Caton, CEO of Valley Milk LLC. “We are proud to work alongside the Rizo family to bring quality Hispanic-style dairy products back to consumers who have long valued this brand, and we are fully committed to building something stronger and more resilient for the long run.”
“Valley Milk was built on a shared vision of excellence and community stewardship, and this investment reflects that same spirit,” adds Mike de Jager, chairman of the Valley Milk board. “Francisco Foods represents an exciting new chapter, and we look forward to the positive impact it will have across the region for years to come.”
The Tio Francisco brand was built on family, craft and a deep connection to the Hispanic community, and that will never change, notes Edwin Rizo, co-founder of Rizo-Lopez Foods.
“Partnering with Valley Milk gives us the foundation to come back stronger, and l am confident that our customers and partners will see and feel that difference from day one,” Rizo says.
Francisco Foods, under the Tio Francisco brand, will continue producing and serving its line of Hispanic-style cheeses and cream products.
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February cheese exports set new record, up 30% from 2025 |
April 10, 2026 |
WASHINGTON — U.S. dairy exports were up in February, reaching a total of 239,541 metric tons worth $803.9 million, according the latest data released by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Compared to a year earlier, exports were up 14% by volume (+13% on a milk solids equivalent basis), and 11% by value.
Dairy imports in February totaled 57,560 metric tons, down 20% from a year earlier, and were valued at $345.9 million, down 22% from last February.
The U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) notes that with just 28 days in the month, U.S. cheese exports set not only a February record, but an all-time high for any month. February cheese exports totaled 58,406 metric tons, up 30% from a year earlier, and up 6% from the prior record set last November.
Cheese exports were up particularly in Latin American countries as well as in Japan and Australia, with more nominal growth across a number of other countries, USDEC reports. Product variety also helped support growth, with fresh cheese exports up 36%, shredded cheese up 26% and exports of other cheeses, mostly specialty and Gouda, up 22%, USDEC adds.
“Looking ahead, it seems likely that U.S. cheese exports will continue to surge this year and likely beyond,” USDEC says in its U.S. Dairy Exporter Blog (blog.usdec.org/usdairyexporter). “Milk production remains robust across the country, and with several major cheese production facilities still ramping up, output is expected to remain upbeat throughout 2026. Even as domestic consumption has shown an encouraging improvement early in the year, the U.S. is nevertheless expected to have sufficient cheese available to continue meeting rapidly expanding global demand.”
Butter and milk fat exports in February rose 77% from a year earlier to 15,331 metric tons, with butter exports nearly doubling from a year earlier. USDEC reports that the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) led butter growth, with shipments up seven-fold, while the increase in anhydrous milk fat (AMF) was split between a number of regions, including Australia, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia and MENA.
Exports of nonfat dry milk (NDM) in February totaled 52,350 metric tons, up 8% from a year earlier, and whey exports totaled 48,518 metric tons, up 9% from February 2025.
While dairy exports have been strong so far this year, USDEC points out that February was the final month of problem-free shipping to the Middle East.
“Supply chain challenges associated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hit full force in March, and we anticipate those challenges will begin to affect volumes when that data is released on May 5,” USDEC says.
Additionally, USDEC notes that U.S. dairy exports in 2025 began picking up in June, so year-over-year exports after that will have higher year-ago numbers.
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| Companies use sandwich celebrations to help highlight high-quality cheese, dairy
MADISON, Wis. — Sandwiched around other well-known holidays this spring are some lesser-known but very tasty occasions, such as National Cheesesteak Day, celebrated March 24, and National Grilled Cheese Day, which falls the Sunday after Easter this year on April 12.
These cheesy holidays offer a chance for consumers to indulge and for businesses to promote their products through giveaways, recipes and social media spots that range from classic to creative.
The famous Philly cheesesteak originated with a Philadelphia hot dog vendor in the 1930s, and since then has become a favorite from deli counters to restaurant menus across the country.
Dietz & Watson, a premium meat and cheese company based in Philadelphia that also originated in the 1930s, is spotlighting its picks for the best cheeses and flavors to celebrate National Cheesesteak Day this year.
“For a great cheesesteak, meltability is everything,” explains Jeff Kampa, Dietz & Watson’s cheese specialist. “You want a cheese that melts smoothly and evenly into the hot steak, creating that creamy texture that binds the sandwich together without overpowering the meat. A little stretch is ideal too, along with a balanced flavor that complements the beef.”
For a traditional cheesesteak, Kampa says classics like white or yellow American melt beautifully and deliver the creamy, nostalgic cheesesteak experience people expect. Provolone is another classic choice because it also melts well and lets the flavor of the steak shine.
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Dairy groups praise USTR report on eliminating barriers to trade |
April 3, 2026 |
WASHINGTON — This week, the Office of the United States Trade Representative submitted the 2026 National Trade Estimate (NTE) to President Trump and Congress. The 2026 NTE details significant foreign trade barriers facing U.S. exporters and outlines how the Trump administration is addressing these non-reciprocal practices to ensure an even playing field for American workers.
“President Trump continues to reverse decades of unfair trade practices by using tariffs and brokering deals to open markets abroad while supporting industries and sparking investment at home,” says U.S. Trade Representative
(USTR) Jamieson Greer. “This year’s report highlights how the commitments secured in the agreements on reciprocal trade are eliminating long-standing trade barriers and unlocking new markets with hundreds of millions of consumers for U.S. exporters. The Trump administration will continue to build on the momentum from the past year to address the unfair trade practices detailed in this report and advance the best interests of American workers and their families.”
The NTE is an annual report due to the president and Congress by March 31 of each year. To prepare the NTE, USTR works closely with other government agencies and U.S. embassies and solicits comments from the public through a Federal Register notice.
The U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC), National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and Consortium for Common Food Names (CCFN) commended USTR for spotlighting persistent trade barriers facing U.S. dairy exporters in the latest NTE.
“Nearly one in every six pounds of milk produced in America is shipped to a customer overseas,” says Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF. “When foreign markets are closed off by bogus restrictions, the pain is felt directly on farms across this country. The administration’s work through reciprocal trade negotiations to knock down these barriers is exactly the kind of advocacy American dairy farmers need, and we are grateful to see it reflected in this report.”
USDEC President and CEO Krysta Harden says the inclusion of dairy trade barriers in this report, and the administration’s concrete action to address them through reciprocal trade negotiations, sends a clear signal that the United States is serious about opening markets for American dairy exporters.
“Every unnecessary certification requirement dismantled, every unjustified facility registration eliminated and every market access commitment secured through these agreements is a win for U.S. dairy,” she says. “We thank the administration for confronting the barriers directly, and we look forward to building on that progress.”
As in previous years, the NTE notes that the United States remains concerned by the European Union’s (EU’s) overbroad protection of geographical indications (GIs), which adversely impacts both protection of U.S. trademarks and market access for U.S. products that use common names in the EU and third-country markets. Many U.S. cheeses have been impacted by these practices.
For example, the report notes that the EU has granted GI protection to the cheese names “Danbo” and “Havarti,” widely traded cheeses that are covered by international standards under the Codex Alimentarius. Several countries, including the United States, opposed GI protection of these common names both during the EU’s opposition period and at the World Trade Organization, but the European Commission granted the protection over that opposition and without sufficient explanation to interested parties, the NTE explains.
“The EU’s common name confiscation campaign is one of the most cynical trade tactics in the world today, and we are grateful that this administration has made confronting it a priority,” says Jaime Castaneda, executive director of CCFN. “By documenting the EU’s geographical indications agenda prominently in the NTE Report and pushing back against it in reciprocal trade negotiations, USTR is standing up for American producers of cheeses, wines, meats and beers. We strongly encourage the administration to keep up the great work.”
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IDFA lauds USDA expansion of SNAP dairy incentives to Auburn |
April 3, 2026 |
WASHINGTON — The International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA) this week lauded the news that USDA has awarded Auburn University’s Hunger Solutions Institute (HSI) a $2.99 million grant, using fiscal year 2025 funding appropriated by Congress, to expand SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) Healthy Fluid Milk Incentives (HFMI) projects across 169 SNAP-authorized retail stores in nine states. The award includes 75 new HFMI locations in Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Minnesota and Oklahoma, along with the renewal of 94 existing sites in Alabama, California and South Dakota.
By scaling this targeted SNAP incentive, USDA is equipping more retailers to help SNAP households purchase fluid milk — one of the most under-consumed, nutrient-dense foods identified in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans — while reinforcing the critical role dairy plays in improving diet quality and advancing public health, IDFA says. Since 2020, HFMI has expanded to more than 1,270 retail stores in 33 states.
“SNAP dairy incentives are one important way we can help to make America healthy again,” says Michael Dykes, president and CEO of IDFA. “We appreciate Congress’s investment in HFMI and USDA’s strong implementation of the program to help families choose more nutrient-dense dairy foods, support healthier diets and deliver real value for taxpayers — all while supporting America’s dairy farmers and processors.”
USDA is pleased to partner with Auburn University’s College of Human Sciences to improve consumption of fluid milk, says Patrick Penn, deputy under secretary for food, nutrition and consumer services at USDA.
“Milk, especially whole milk, is paramount to the recently released Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-2030. The department looks forward to the Hunger Solutions Institute encouraging not only more milk consumption, but how to better use the incentive to purchase other healthful, less processed SNAP-eligible items,” Penn says.
HFMI — also known as “Add Milk” — provides SNAP participants with incentives to purchase fat-free and lowfat milk, helping families access essential nutrients while making the most of their food budgets. The program operates through both coupon and automatic discount models, reducing cost barriers at the point of purchase and encouraging repeat purchases of healthier options.
New data from Auburn University’s Hunger Solutions Institute shows that HFMI is delivering measurable results for families, retailers and communities.
Between May 2023 and September 2025:
• More than $4.3 million in skim and 1% milk was purchased using SNAP benefits at participating retailers.
• SNAP households used $2.39 million in HFMI incentives, driving additional food purchases and increasing overall basket size.
• Participating retailers saw strong engagement, with 95% redemption rates for incentive coupons at select locations.
HFMI also is reaching a significant number of families and driving sustained behavior change, the report says. The program has served more than 612,000 unique SNAP households, with an average of more than 28,000 households participating each month. As the program has expanded, purchases of healthier milk options have increased substantially. SNAP household sales of skim and 1% milk at participating locations grew 72% from fiscal year 2024 to fiscal year 2025, demonstrating the program’s ability to shift purchasing patterns toward more nutritious choices.
“The continuation and expansion of HFMI represents an important step forward,” says Alicia Powers, managing director, Hunger Solutions Institute and principal investigator of HFMI. “The most recent cooperative agreement is the first to demonstrate sustainability of participating retailers across multiple funding cycles, indicating proven successes at the program, retailer and household levels. The recent award also continues expanding HFMI to additional retailers, communities and households, ensuring this work makes a lasting difference nationwide.”
IDFA notes it continues to advocate for Congress to appropriate funding to continue and launch new HFMI projects, as well as to expand HFMI into a broader Dairy Nutrition Incentives Projects (DNIP) that incentivizes the purchase of all varieties of milk, as well as cheese, yogurt and cultured dairy products.
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February cheese production up 3.9% from one year earlier |
April 3, 2026 |
WASHINGTON — February U.S. cheese production, excluding cottage cheese, totaled 1.161 billion pounds, up 3.9% from the 1.116 billion pounds produced in February 2025, according to data released this week by USDA’s Natural Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). February cheese production was down 9.0% from the 1.276 billion pounds produced in January, but up 0.7% on a daily average basis. (All figures are rounded. Please see CMN’s Dairy Production chart.)
Italian-type cheese production in February totaled 506.3 million pounds, up 6.8% from February 2025. Production of Mozzarella, the largest component of Italian-type cheese production, totaled 394.8 million pounds in February, up 5.8% from a year earlier.
American-type cheese production in February totaled 451.0 million pounds, up 1.9% from February 2025. Production of Cheddar, the largest component of American-type cheese, totaled 314.7 million pounds, up 2.3% from February 2025.
Wisconsin was the leading cheese-producing state with 284.2 million pounds produced in February, up 0.7% from February 2025.
California followed with 185.8 million pounds produced in February, down 7.4% from a year earlier.
U.S. production of butter totaled 221.2 million pounds in February, up 9.1% from 202.7 million pounds in February 2025. February butter production was down 8.2% from January’s 240.9 million pounds, but up 1.7% on a daily average basis.
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EU votes to advance its trade agreement with United States |
March 27, 2026 |
BRUSSELS, Belgium — The European Union (EU) yesterday voted in favor of advancing its trade agreement with the United States, while building in safeguards that would negate the deal if additional tariffs are imposed on EU goods.
Last summer, President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached a deal on tariff and trade issues, which was expected to be implemented earlier this year. However, following the Supreme Court ruling that deemed tariffs Trump had imposed on the EU and other trading partners illegal, followed by the imposition of new 10% tariffs, the EU paused its ratification process.
The European Parliament voted 417-154 to adopt one piece of legislation on the adjustment of customs duties and opening of tariff quotas for the import of certain goods originating in the United States, and 437-144 to pass the second legislative act on non-application of customs duties on imports of certain goods. Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) now are ready to start negotiations with EU governments on the final legislation.
The texts, if agreed with by EU member states, will eliminate most tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and provide preferential market access for a wide range of U.S. seafood and agricultural goods.
MEPs had strengthened the proposed suspension clause, which would allow the tariff preferences with the United States to be suspended under a number of conditions. For instance, the commission would be able to propose suspending all or some trade preferences if the United States were to impose additional taxes exceeding the agreed 15% ceiling, or any new duties on EU goods. The suspension clause also could be activated if the United States undermined the objectives of the deal, discriminated against EU economic operators, threatened member states’ territorial integrity, foreign and defense policies, or engaged in economic coercion.
“MEPs will only be able to sign up to the trade terms of the deal if the regulation contains very strong and clear safeguards, and only after the U.S. has fully respected the terms of the deal,” says German MEP Bernd Lange, chair of the International Trade committee.
“The conditions are clearly defined in parliament’s position,” he adds. “They include a sunrise clause requiring full U.S. compliance before the regulation can take effect, and a sunset clause ensuring full parliamentary oversight of any extension of the concessions, all the while remaining WTO-compliant. Any further tariff threat, or the failure of the deal to deliver for EU producers and consumers, will lead to the expiry of the legislation.”
U.S. dairy industry groups have long voiced concern over EU protectionism, particularly the use of geographical indications to restrict certain U.S. cheeses from being marketed and sold in the region. Dairy groups also are working with U.S. trade officials to ensure certain EU sustainability reporting requirements do not pose overly burdensome restrictions to U.S. exporters.
The EU also this week concluded negotiations on a free trade agreement with Australia, which removes over 99% of tariffs on EU exports to Australia,improves access to critical raw materials and strengthens strategic ties with the Indo-pacific. For Australia, 98% of its exports to the EU will be tariff free, including most dairy products.
In other trade news, this week U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer is participating in the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 14th Ministerial Meeting in Yaoundé, Cameroon. For the meeting’s kick-off remarks, Greer outlined how President Trump is restructuring the trading system based on the principles of reciprocity, fairness and balanced trade to create a level playing field for American farmers, manufacturers and producers, as well as the WTO’s role in this new trade paradigm. Ahead of the meeting, USTR circulated a communication to WTO members on U.S. priorities for WTO reform.
“U.S. trade policy measures are a corrective response to a trading system, embodied by the WTO, that has overseen and contributed to severe and sustained imbalances,” Greer said in his remarks. “As ministers, our focus should be on reforms that would make the WTO more responsive to members and improve our ability to achieve conversations with you this week on WTO reform, the future role of the WTO and what this organization realistically can, and cannot, accomplish.”
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FAPRI outlook eyes potential price recovery for U.S. cheese |
March 27, 2026 |
COLUMBIA, Mo. — This week, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri (MU) published its latest U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook, a summary of 10-year baseline projections for U.S. agricultural markets, farm program spending, farm income and a variety of other indicators.
The report summarizes baseline projections for agricultural and biofuel markets prepared using information available in January 2026, including macroeconomic forecasts by S&P Global. The baseline reflects current policies, incorporating programs in place in January 2026, but does not reflect any subsequent policy changes. Current geopolitical events in the Middle East, and the related impact on energy and fertilizer prices, add significant near-term uncertainty to the outlook, FAPRI notes. The baseline is intended to serve as a reasonable point of reference for evaluating alternative scenarios, not a prediction of future market conditions or policy choices.
Dairy markets saw considerable volatility as increases in milk production and component content of milk pressured markets in late 2025, the report notes. FAPRI says it is likely there will be payments under the Dairy Margin Coverage
(DMC) program in the near term, which could be significant if product supply growth outstrips demand.
In 2025, yield and dairy cow numbers both increased significantly, the report says. Yields rose on strong prices and mitigation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) impacts in key producing areas. The report shows that milk production reached 231.4 billion pounds in 2025. Milk production is projected to increase to 234.0 billion pounds this year and 235.9 billion pounds in 2027. Production is expected to increase steadily throughout the 10-year period, reaching 251.8 billion pounds by 2035, the report says.
Cow numbers grew as new processing capacity came online, FAPRI says, noting the total number of U.S. dairy cows reached 9.50 million head in 2025. Cow numbers are projected to increase to 9.56 million head this year but fall to 9.55 million head in 2027. Cow numbers are projected to move below 9.50 million head throughout the projection period, reaching just under 9.50 million head by 2035, the report says.
Profitability was enhanced by calf sales and beef on dairy production, FAPRI notes. Lower milk prices slow growth in cow numbers in the near term, but strength from the beef sector will continue to provide support. Milk production growth stabilizes at just under 1% per year, but component content will continue to rise.
In early 2026, cheese and butter prices were running significantly below their 2025 levels ($1.72 and $2.14 per pound, respectively) and well below their Oceania equivalents, the report notes. Some recovery in those prices over the rest of 2026 is projected as domestic and export markets remain strong. In the medium term, price prospects will depend in part on the ability of U.S. products to access international markets. The experience of 2025 highlights how sensitive prices can be as the balance between supply and demand changes, FAPRI says.
The report projects that cheese prices will decline to $1.59 per pound this year and $1.56 per pound in 2027 before steadily climbing to $1.71 in 2034 and falling slightly to $1.69 in 2035.
Butter prices are projected to decline to $1.87 per pound this year but rise to $1.97 in 2027. Prices will fluctuate throughout the projection period, increasing to $2.30 by 2035, the report says.
Meanwhile, the report projects the all milk price, which reached $21.15 per hundredweight in 2025, will fall to $19.04 this year and $19.10 in 2027. The all milk price is then projected to increase gradually over the next 10 years, reaching $21.15 by 2035.
To download the report, visit https://fapri.missouri.edu.
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February milk production up 3.1% YOY in 24 major states |
March 27, 2026 |
WASHINGTON — Milk production in the 24 major milk-producing states in February totaled 17.56 billion pounds, up 3.1% from February 2025’s 17.03 billion pounds, according to data released late last week by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). January revised production for the 24 major states was 19.10 billion pounds, an increase of 37 million pounds or 0.2% from the previous month’s preliminary production estimate. (All figures are rounded. Please see CMN’s Milk Production chart.)
For the entire United States, February milk production was estimated at 18.26 billion pounds, up 2.9% from February 2025’s 17.75 billion pounds.
February production per cow in the 24 major states averaged 1,912 pounds, up 13 pounds from February 2025 and down 170 pounds from January. For the entire United States, production per cow in February is estimated at 1,899 pounds, up 12 pounds from February 2025 and down 169 pounds from January.
NASS reports the number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major states was 9.18 million head in February, up 217,000 head from February 2025. In the entire United States, there were an estimated 9.62 million head in February, up 211,000 head from February 2025.
California led the nation’s milk production in February with 3.24 billion pounds of milk, up 2.3% from February 2025. Wisconsin followed with 2.55 billion pounds of milk produced in February, up 2.8% from February 2025.
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